94Ha Viewpoint
The overall national strength is very different, so Ukraine must have a correct attitude. It can neither confront Trump head-on nor completely accommodate him. It must be experienced in grasping the timing and the degree, otherwise it will die without a burial place. Peace talks must be delayed. The longer the reasonable delay, the more beneficial it is to Ukraine.
Trump 2.0 has reopened for five weeks, and the new policies are dazzling. One of them is the 180-degree reversal of his position on the Russian-Ukrainian war. On the one hand, he once again proved that he is the most pro-Russian American president since World War II, leaving Ukraine and European allies behind, making concessions, and talking on the phone with Russian President Putin, the United States’ long-time enemy. Then the two sides negotiated separately in Riyadh to restore diplomatic relations; on the other hand, he exerted strong pressure on Ukraine, demanding that it provide mineral resources worth $500 billion in return for the US’s $350 billion in aid in the first three years and future support.
Looking back at history, the United States has poor credit and selfishness, and has ruthlessly abandoned its allies many times in times of crisis. It abandoned China’s Chiang Kai-shek, South Korea’s Syngman Rhee, South Vietnam’s Ngo Dinh Diem, Syria’s Kurdish armed forces, Afghanistan’s Ghani, and now it is ready to abandon Ukraine’s Zelensky.
Zelensky knew that there was a bad neighbor Russia, Putin, who came from the KGB, was tough, and Ukraine’s political, economic and cultural links were inseparable from Russia, but he was still one-sidedly pro-American and pro-Western, and even wrote the content of joining NATO into the constitution. He did not remain neutral and played both sides, making serious strategic mistakes. The country and the people paid a heavy price. This is standing on the wrong side. When Trump ran for re-election in 2020, he asked him to assist in investigating Biden’s son Hunter’s suspected illegal operations in Ukraine. He refused and bet on Biden’s victory. This is following the wrong person. Trump is narrow-minded and vindictive. How could he be good to Zelensky?
Fortunately, after Russia launched the war of aggression, Zelensky performed well as a wartime president. He was able to save the country after it had been ruined. When the motherland and the people needed him most, he bravely stood up and transformed from a rookie to a tough guy, demonstrating national integrity and national dignity, and was worthy of the head of state and supreme commander. After Trump returned to the White House, he was eager to make achievements and end the Russian-Ukrainian war. It is not ruled out that he had the vanity of winning the Nobel Peace Prize, and he also wanted to accelerate strategic contraction and free up resources to compete with China in an all-round way. Facing the hard pressure and soft deception from the United States, as a weak country that needs the United States, Zelensky still showed a tough side and did not lick his knees, which is remarkable.
He refused to sign immediately on the grounds that the United States did not provide security guarantees to Ukraine, and proposed amendments to the mineral agreement; he postponed his visit to Saudi Arabia when the United States and Russia were negotiating in Saudi Arabia because he was not invited; he said in a speech at the Munich Security Conference that he would never accept a peace agreement without Ukraine and Europe; he quarreled with Trump online; he argued that Ukraine only accepted about $100 billion in U.S. aid, not $350 billion, and hinted that the United States should investigate why there was a $250 billion gap and that asking for a $500 billion return was a lion’s mouth.
How the Russian-Ukrainian war ends involves the reshaping of the European security structure and major changes in global geopolitics. Can Zelensky only sign a rare earth agreement with the United States as soon as possible? Can he only let Trump bully and slaughter him? The situation is far more complicated and changeable than imagined. Zelensky is obviously in a weak position and extremely dangerous, but there are still multiple options, and it is still possible to play a good card and seek to maximize personal and national interests.
Must ensure that he approves the agreement
1. Hold a national election within one year after the signing of the peace agreement. Zelensky’s presidential term expired in May last year, so Putin questioned his “legitimacy” as president, and Trump recently chimed in and accused him of being a “dictator.” The two are in collusion, obviously rejecting the disobedient Zelensky, hoping that he will step down as soon as possible to avoid interfering with the US-Russia negotiations. There are precedents for not holding general elections during wartime in many countries, and it is also in line with the Ukrainian Constitution. It has nothing to do with democracy. The EU expressed understanding, even the leader of the Ukrainian opposition and former President Poroshenko said that “elections are impossible without peace.” Zelensky must first ensure that he approves the agreement on the Russian-Ukrainian war. This is very critical. If he is eliminated early, it will be miserable for himself and the country. He will end up badly, either going to prison and being held accountable, or fleeing the country for political asylum, and even political murder is not ruled out. No matter who takes over as president, it will only be more difficult to get a fairer agreement for the country.
2. Ukraine and Europe must participate in the negotiations throughout the process. Insisting on opposing a separate peace between the United States and Russia, the international community can repeatedly draw analogies with the secret deal between Hitler and Stalin in 1939 to illegally divide Poland, thus forming moral and public opinion pressure. The United States is currently making decisions and leaking information in a disorderly manner. Ukrainian envoy Kylo clearly stated that “Europe is not expected to have a place at the negotiation table” for the Russian-Ukrainian war; Secretary of State Rubio denied that “when it (the negotiations) reaches a point, Ukraine will participate” and “Europeans must also participate in it”, but also implied and set two prerequisites: Ukraine and Europe will not participate in the negotiations at the first time; when to participate and what role to play, the United States has the final say. No matter how the United States manipulates, any peace agreement must be led by the Russian and Ukrainian warring countries, and the United States and Europe can participate in mediation. Consider inviting the three major countries of Britain, France and Germany to attend the negotiations, but it is expected that Putin will not agree. This can be used as one of the bargaining chips in the negotiation, and the Russian side will make concessions in other places in the transaction.
3. There are both territorial concessions and territorial guarantees. US Defense Secretary Hegseth said at the NATO headquarters in Brussels that it is “unrealistic” to restore Ukraine’s borders before 2014, which is the truth. The author has been writing articles to analyze that Ukraine will definitely not be able to take back Crimea, even if the US military enters the battlefield, not to mention that the US military dare not do so because Russia has a huge nuclear arsenal. Ukraine has to give up Crimea, but it must strive to restore the borders before 2022. Russia has already occupied the four states of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia. Giving up all the territories is too big a concession, but there is still room for negotiation. There are two ways: the Ukrainian army will expand its occupation of Kursk and Belgorod in the two western Russian states at all costs as a bargaining chip for future territorial exchanges; the four eastern Ukrainian states will expand their autonomy, and the sovereignty belongs to Ukraine. Russia and Ukraine recognize the dual nationality of the people in the four states.
The direction of the negotiation should be more about the substance and less about the face
Fourth, it is necessary to adhere to the “two links”. That is, the US-Ukraine mineral agreement is linked to the security agreement, and the lifting of Russian economic sanctions is linked to Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction. This is the core and correct negotiation strategy. If it is not linked, Ukraine will definitely suffer a great loss. The US and Europe should not lift economic sanctions unconditionally. For example, Putin may not agree to detain Russia’s $300 billion sovereign assets for Ukraine’s reconstruction. The direction of the negotiations should be to downplay war reparations, seek more substance and less face, restore Russian energy exports to Europe, and impose higher tariffs on them for Ukraine’s reconstruction. The United States is unwilling to send troops for peacekeeping, but instead asks Europe to send troops for peacekeeping, fooling China and Brazil to send troops for peacekeeping, attempting to instigate relations among BRICS countries. Russia has stated that it will not accept NATO troops, nor will it accept NATO member states sending troops. The best solution is for the UN Security Council to pass a resolution to review and accept the Russian-Ukrainian peace agreement and send peacekeeping troops, with personnel and funds mainly borne by Europe.
5. Use slowness to control speed and delay to wait for changes. Due to the disparity in comprehensive national strength, Ukraine must have a correct attitude. It cannot confront Trump head-on, nor can it completely accommodate him. It must be experienced in mastering the timing and measuring the degree, otherwise it will die without a burial place. Peace talks must be delayed, and the longer they are reasonably delayed, the more beneficial it will be for Ukraine. Putin can’t afford to delay. Although the Russian army has the upper hand on the battlefield, it has fought very poorly. So far, it has not been able to drive the Ukrainian army out of the territory, cannot completely occupy the strategic city of Kharkiv, and is even more unable to carry out large-scale mobile encirclement and annihilation of the Ukrainian army. Trump is currently arrogant and rampant, mainly because he has gained full power and his approval rating is far higher than the previous term. The Republican Party has swept all swing states again after more than 40 years. But voters are fickle, and the arbitrary imposition of tariffs will inevitably push up domestic inflation, and the people have not benefited. In the US mid-term elections in November 2026, the Democratic Party is expected to regain control of the House of Representatives. Controlling the “money bag” will help to check and balance Trump. Zelensky does not need to rush to sign a peace agreement. He is prepared to negotiate more than 10 rounds and consider two stages. First, negotiate a ceasefire on the contact line, which is in the common interests of all parties, and then discuss a more complex comprehensive peace agreement.
6. Establish a solid united front. Internally, they lowered their status and took the initiative to reach a consensus with the opposition party on safeguarding sovereignty. The direct benefit is that the United States will not rush to remove Zelensky from office, because even if a new president is replaced, he will not dare to make too many concessions; externally, they will work together with the European Union. Poland and the three Baltic countries are the most determined to support Ukraine and oppose Russia, mainly targeting the three major countries of Britain, France and Germany. On February 19, the European Union insisted on imposing the 16th round of sanctions on Russia and prepared to provide Ukraine with an additional package of military aid of about 20 billion euros (about 28 billion Singapore dollars), demonstrating limited strategic autonomy and indirectly putting pressure on the United States and Russia. This is the right strategy. Strive for more understanding and sympathy in the international community, especially the United Nations system. It is an objective fact that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine violates the “Charter of the United Nations”, which is also the consensus and common sense of most countries in the world. If we blindly appease and indulge in aggressive wars, the law of the jungle will prevail, and small and medium-sized countries will never have peace.
