94Ha Viewpoint
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk recently spoke in parliament, expressing the need to study nuclear weapons in order to defend Poland. He also revealed that the Polish government is developing a plan to conduct large-scale military training for adult males, with the goal of having 500,000 people trained in the country. Tusk also expressed support for two NATO countries, Finland and Lithuania. These two countries close to Russia are actively considering withdrawing from the Ottawa Treaty on the ban on landmines. Lithuania withdrew from the Convention on Cluster Munitions last week as a strategic signal to Russia that Lithuania is ready to use all means to defend itself.
Poland’s declaration is indicative. As the country that has most actively supported Ukraine since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, Poland has a sense of sympathy for the development of the war, and the Soviet republics close to Russia are also worried that they will become the next Ukraine. After US President Trump came to power for the second time, his actions of singing the same tune with Russian President Vladimir Putin have deepened the anxiety of countries around Russia and Ukraine. NATO and European countries have repeatedly lowered their expectations for the United States’ willingness to continue to provide military protection. Tusk’s constant demand for Europe to strengthen its collective defense and win the arms race against Russia is a clear understanding. In fact, in the past few years, after Trump’s first term constantly warned NATO countries to increase defense spending, the Russian-Ukrainian war broke out, and major NATO countries reached a historical high of 2% of their GDP in defense spending, with Poland exceeding 4%.
The treaty banning landmines and cluster munitions was originally a big step for the international community to move towards civilization, but the Ukrainian war has been protracted and there is no sign of peace. The Russian-Ukrainian peace agreement that the Trump administration is trying to promote seems to be a surrender under the city where the sovereignty of weak countries is not respected, which has exacerbated the fears of various countries. Military powers such as the United States, China, and Russia do not sign the above treaty, which will lead to an unfair situation for more than 100 signatories when fighting against them. Once these countries withdraw one after another, it will be a spread of humanitarian disasters. Landmines have caused permanent harm to a large number of civilians in past wars in Asia. If small countries are forced to reverse history in order to resist the war, it will undoubtedly be a great tragedy.
The United States’ reduced commitment to European security and the slow pace of European powers in providing their own protection umbrellas may force countries adjacent to Russia to gradually deploy large-scale minefields on their borders as buffers. Human rights organizations have accused this practice of endangering civilians, but what should be condemned more is Russia, which has launched wars and continues to threaten other countries with nuclear weapons.
The Trump administration’s diplomatic posture towards Ukraine and Russia has shown a clear gap, which has aroused Europe’s willingness to sacrifice welfare to strengthen defense and self-protection. French President Macron recently issued a proposal to provide a nuclear umbrella for European allies, which is an important variable in the European arms race. France and the United Kingdom, the two major nuclear powers in Europe, each have more than 200 nuclear warheads, which is incomparable to the United States and Russia, each with more than 5,000 warheads, so they cannot replace the United States’ checks and balances on Russia. However, in terms of conventional military power, Europe’s collective strength exceeds that of Russia. Once countries establish a collective defense plan and put it into action, it is not ruled out that large-scale personnel and armament production capacity will be activated. The recent sharp rise in stock prices in the European military industry has foreshadowed this trend.
Prior to this, Russia attacked Ukraine when the United States was actively preparing for mediation, showing its lack of sincerity in peace talks and making Eastern European countries feel its intention of continued aggression. This is prompting larger European countries such as Poland to explore and seek small-scale nuclear weapons checks and balances driven by a sense of crisis.
The duck knows when the river water warms in spring. The defense thinking of Eastern European countries has been continuously strengthened in recent years, which once again highlights that the global system of free trade and global supply chain integration that has been running for decades has reversed. The decision-making focus of countries and large enterprises is no longer just how to divide production capacity and reduce costs to maximize benefits, but more consideration of national defense and security needs. The global political landscape has been rewritten, and European peace is facing fundamental and huge variables. If Russia’s position is not adjusted, even if Russia and Ukraine sign a ceasefire agreement, it may not last long. European countries of all sizes should have seen this clearly, and large-scale arms expansion in the next few years is inevitable.
When the balance of world security is unbalanced, security and defense considerations gradually outweigh the pursuit of economic development, which will have a significant and far-reaching impact on the global economy and will also affect the current economic and trade situation in East Asia. This huge change is like water heating up and gradually escalating. Small countries like Singapore need to be mentally and ideologically prepared, clearly understand the dangers and opportunities, and find space for safety and sustainable development.
