94Ha Viewpoint
After the United States stops aiding Ukraine, given the current scale of the war and the consumption of weapons and ammunition, can Ukraine, which only has European aid, continue to fight? How long can the remaining weapons and ammunition sustain Ukraine? What does this mean for the current Russian-Ukrainian battlefield?
If U.S. military aid is suspended for a long time and the EU does not significantly increase its support, Ukraine may face the risk of running out of key equipment and the collapse of its defense system within 3-6 months. However, the temporary nature of the current suspension of aid and the potential political solution may delay this process.
Short-term combat capability
Ukrainian President Zelensky has publicly stated that if the Western military aid is lost, the Ukrainian army may lose its effective defense capability within a few months. This assessment is consistent with the prediction of the international media in 2023, that is, without US aid, Ukraine can only maintain key military operations for 2-3 months.
The complementary role of EU aid
The EU plans to complete its commitment to provide Ukraine with 1 million rounds of artillery shells in March or April 2024, but this time point has passed for nearly a year, and the actual fulfillment of the contract is still unclear. In addition, the lack of European military production capacity may limit its ability to fill the gap after the suspension of US aid.
Battlefield dynamics and political games
NATO Deputy Secretary-General Mircea Geovanna pointed out that the Russian-Ukrainian war may continue after 2025, but both sides lack decisive military advantages.
The two parties in the US Congress are negotiating on the resumption of aid, and if a border security agreement is reached, the aid may be restarted. This variable will directly affect Ukraine’s long-term resistance.
