94Ha Viewpoint
Japan’s birth rate hit a record low last year. With the aging population and the decreasing number of taxpaying workers, Japan’s social security faces more severe challenges.
Data released by the Japanese Ministry of Health on Thursday (February 27) showed that the number of newborns in Japan in 2024 fell by 5% year-on-year to only 720,988, the ninth consecutive year of decline. This figure is far lower than the 779,000 predicted by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research. The death toll reached a record 1.62 million, which means that for every baby born, more than two people died.
In Japan, there is a strong correlation between marriage and fertility, and out-of-wedlock births are rare. Takumi Fujinami, chief researcher at the Japan Research Institute, analyzed that the decline in marriage rates caused by the coronavirus pandemic in recent years is the main reason for the decline in birth rates, and “this impact may continue until 2025.”
In 2020, at the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic, the number of marriages in Japan fell sharply by 12.7%, and may rebound slightly by 2.2% to nearly 500,000 couples in 2024.
The reluctance of the younger generation in Japan to have children is another reason for the continued decline in the birth rate. The government is trying to promote fertility, such as implementing a 3.6 trillion yen (about S$32.2 billion) childcare subsidy policy, but with little success.
Japan’s population is aging rapidly, and the declining birth rate will lead to a further decline in the labor force, which will in turn increase the government’s already heavy debt burden. According to a research institute under Recruit Holdings, Japan’s largest human resources group, Japan’s labor shortage may reach 11 million by 2040. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) reported that Japan’s public debt will reach 232.7% of gross domestic product (GDP) this year.
At the same time, the proportion of the population over retirement age is also rising, pushing up social security costs. The government allocated 37.7 trillion yen for social security in fiscal 2025, an increase of nearly 20% in the past 10 years.
In addition, according to statistics from the Japanese Ministry of Health, the number of pension contributors has decreased by about 3 million in the past 20 years, while the number of recipients has increased by nearly 40%, putting greater pressure on the pension system.
Neighboring South Korea also faces a severe aging problem. Its fertility rate in 2023 is only 0.72, which means that each woman of childbearing age will give birth to 0.72 children on average. It may rise slightly to 0.75 in 2024. Japan’s fertility rate in 2023 is 1.20.
Takumi Fujinami believes that it is too early to make a meaningful comparison between the fertility data of the two countries. What is important is that both countries should improve employment opportunities, narrow the gender gap, and encourage young people to get married and have children.
