94Ha Viewpoint
Although Trump calls himself Mr. Tariff Man, it is still a question whether his plan to threaten to use the tariff stick can be realized. Judging from personnel appointments, he appointed a team of Wall Street people to key economic positions, so his tariff war is likely to be a lot of noise but little rain.
Judging from personnel appointments, Trump’s decision-making system is based on the consideration of the balance of various factions. At present, Trump’s foreign relations team is basically divided into three camps: the first is the America primacist, who believes that the core interest of the United States lies in maintaining absolute military dominance in the world, so it must be fully contained (the so-called symmetric containment), that is, to suppress and defeat any competitor in all aspects, regardless of region, environment and conditions. This type of people focuses on ideological warfare, human rights issues, trade wars and technological wars.
The second is the strategic restraintist, that is, the United States should adopt asymmetric containment, that is, selectively compete with opponents on issues related to national interests and security. This type of people requires the United States to reduce military spending, conduct strategic contraction around the world, and let allies take more responsibilities. At the same time, they do not agree with the trade war and ideological war, and believe that it is unlikely to succeed in promoting American values.
There is also a third group of people, the “Indo-Pacific First” theorists. This group of people is called realists, and believes that in today’s world, the Asia-Pacific region is the core area of American interests. They demand that Europe’s importance in the US geostrategic be reduced, and Asia be given priority. The US military resources should be transferred to the Indo-Pacific region, and containing China is the top priority.
The first group is represented by Secretary of State-designate Rubio, including White House trade adviser Navarro and others. They are not powerful, but their anti-China mentality is deep-rooted. The second group includes Secretary of Defense-designate Hegseth, CIA Director Ratcliffe, Director of Intelligence Gabbard, and almost the entire economic team, mainly composed of Wall Street tycoons and business people, including the Secretary of the Treasury, the Secretary of Commerce, and the Ambassador to China. These people do not agree with the trade war, and even the status of the trade representative-designate who loves to fight a trade war has been reduced because he will be directly controlled by the Ministry of Commerce. The third group of people should not be underestimated, represented by Vice President-designate Vance, including National Security Advisor-designate Waltz and others.
All three groups will have a place in the Trump administration. It is always difficult for any government to reach an internal consensus on a common strategy, and it may be particularly difficult for the incoming administration because they will have many differences, and most of them are self-centered and have strong personalities, and it is not easy to cooperate.
Why did Trump establish such a decision-making team? It would be wrong to explain it only from the perspective of “political rewards” or “loyalty first”. The Economist chose “Kakistocracy” as the keyword for 2024, which means that not only are Trump using bad people, but also incompetent officials. The mistake in this statement is that it does not understand what the major geopolitical issues of Trump’s second term are.
Trump is eager to launch a differentiation strategy
In fact, the Trump administration faces a dilemma, that is, will he focus on strengthening military deterrence against the four most important and increasingly allied opponents of the United States-China, Russia, North Korea and Iran? Or, because this approach is costly and the risk of war is high, will Trump try to separate the four countries, or at least shift the burden of deterrence and containment to American allies and partners? It is clear that Trump will definitely choose the latter. Trump is eager to end the Russia-Ukraine war and the Middle East war during the Biden era, and his purpose is to start the summit diplomacy he regards as the most effective as soon as possible and start the differentiation strategy.
In addition, although Trump calls himself Mr. Tariff Man, it is still questionable whether his plan to threaten to use the tariff stick can be realized. Judging from the personnel appointments, he appointed a team full of Wall Street to key economic positions, so his tariff war is probably thunder and rain.
Treasury Secretary and Commerce Secretary Bessant and Lutnick are both billionaires in the financial industry. They have previously publicly opposed the widespread use of tariff weapons. Hassett, chairman of the White House National Economic Council, is a traditional right-wing economist and free trader. Lutnick has always insisted that Trump proposed a tariff war mainly for bargaining; Bessant described tariffs as a tax on American consumers.
Trump has always believed that tariffs are necessary to reduce imports and increase revenue, and continuing to extend and expand tax cuts will create a huge revenue gap for the government. But implementing tariff diplomacy is no easy task, and it will become even more difficult when all senior economic officials may be committed to weakening the tariff agenda.
In short, Trump’s personnel arrangements reflect a balancing act. He is like a ball juggler, seeking balance in the dynamics of throwing several balls at the same time. Historically, Germany’s Bismarck played the same trick and successfully maintained the balance of power and peace in Europe for decades. This game requires superb skills. Once you fail, you will not be able to achieve the result of gaining support within the government in priority policy areas.
