94Ha Viewpoint
The Syrian Assad regime collapsed after the opposition launched an offensive on November 27. Assad fled to Russia in a hurry on December 8, shocking the world and bringing about a new change in the situation in the Middle East. Not only will the influence of regional countries such as Israel, Turkey, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Iran increase or decrease due to Assad’s fall, but the influence of extra-regional powers such as Russia and the United States will also increase or decrease. More importantly, the familiar situation in the Middle East is bound to undergo a fundamental change. Whether this will develop into long-term relative stability and peace is still uncertain. But in observing the current situation in the Middle East, we may have to adopt a new perspective in the future.
The “HTS”, which led this unexpected change, itself reflects the complexity of the situation in Syria. It was originally a branch of the notorious extreme Islamic terrorist organization al-Qaeda in Syria. After the leader, who changed his name to Julani, broke with al-Qaeda in 2016, he worked hard to reshape his image, changing from wearing a jihadist turban to a modern military uniform and cap. Julani also actively sought the trust of local Syrian tribes and other religious forces, and gradually controlled large areas of Idlib Province. The United States and Western governments are considering removing HTS from the list of terrorist organizations and starting to contact it. However, Israel does not trust HTS. After Assad fled, it launched air strikes on Syria to completely destroy weapons, ammunition depots and warships in the country to prevent them from falling into the hands of HTS-Julani means “people from the Golan Heights” in Arabic.
After Assad fled, there was no large-scale bloodshed in the Syrian capital Damascus, and basic public services were gradually restored after the opposition took over. Former government officials cooperated with HTS to establish a transitional interim government, which will be valid until March 1 next year. The real key lies in the future power and how to reasonably distribute it among different military factions in the long-term struggle. This is bound to determine how long peace in Syria can last. In addition to the remnants of the Islamic State, the common enemy of all forces, the Syrian National Army, another force supported by Turkey, the Syrian Democratic Forces composed of Kurds, the Alawites of the Assad tribe, the Druzes supported by Israel, and other minority armed forces are also competing for Syria.
Another unstable factor is that Syria is still one of the main battlefields for the game between major powers. Turkey, which supports HTS and other rebel forces in northern Syria, is the big winner. In addition to maintaining influence, Turkey’s main goal is to check and balance the Syrian Kurds to prevent them from colluding with Kurdish separatist forces in Turkey. Another big winner is Israel, which originally occupied the entire Golan Heights. It recently blatantly tore up the 1974 agreement and directly advanced into the buffer zone on the Syrian side. The losers are Russia, which lost its only military base in the Middle East, and Iran, which smuggled weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon through Syria.
US President-elect Trump has stated that he will not intervene militarily in the Syrian situation, but the United States still has troops stationed there. After Assad fled, the US military launched air strikes on the terrorist camps of the Islamic State in Syria to prevent them from taking advantage of the situation; when the US military attacked the Islamic State, it also supported the Syrian Democratic Forces composed of Kurds. In order to check and balance Iran, Qatar and Saudi Arabia have long maintained ambiguous relations with the Assad regime. After the change of power in Syria, these two countries will certainly not easily give up any opportunity to influence the current situation. As internal and external forces are still competing, peace in Syria cannot be too optimistic, especially whether HTS will abandon its extremist religious stance. It is too early to say at the moment.
At the same time, the changes in Syria also provide a rare opportunity for religious reconciliation and peaceful development in the Middle East. If Trump, who supports Israel, can take advantage of the opportunity to support Tel Aviv through diplomacy behind the scenes, and complete the normalization of relations between Israel and the Sunni Gulf countries, especially Saudi Arabia, on the basis of the existing “Abraham Accords”, he can completely isolate Iran, which is trying to develop nuclear weapons to dominate the Middle East. Hezbollah, supported by Iran, has withdrawn from southern Lebanon and cannot threaten Israel’s security in the short term. Hamas, which is supported by Iran, also expressed its position for the first time, accepting Israel’s ceasefire conditions, handing over a list of hostages including American citizens and agreeing to release them, and reportedly agreeing to Israel’s temporary presence in Gaza after the ceasefire.
To be honest, Syria may not be able to change its fate as a pawn in the short term. Only when the various factions in Syria find a basic consensus can they end the decades of civil war and the tyrannical political culture formed by long-term dictatorship. But historical experience in the Middle East shows that this requires patiently cultivating mutual trust and gradually establishing political habits of compromise. The series of subsequent conflicts triggered by Hamas’ attack on Israel in October last year unexpectedly produced a domino effect that could change the Middle East pattern and break the vicious cycle of chaos in the Middle East since the 20th century. This may be unexpected by all parties.
