94Ha ViewpointOn October 7, 2023, Hamas launched the “Al-Aqsa Flood” operation to attack Israel, but it flooded Syria more than a year later. From the sudden attack of the Syrian rebels on November 27 to the fall of Damascus on December 8, it took only 12 days to end the 61-year Syrian Baath Party regime and the 53-year rule of the Assad family. This upheaval that shocked the world is essentially a chain reaction of the Israel-Hamas war.
Yes, the upheaval in Syria is based on the accumulation of contradictions and difficulties in the economy, politics, and military in the country since the outbreak of the civil war in 2011. However, before the outbreak of the Israeli-Kazakhstan war on October 7 last year, the ceasefire in Syria continued, the two key allies had passed the most difficult moment, and the enemy Turkey was in the midst of an economic crisis. Syria’s economic, social and diplomatic environment is improving day by day, and it is expected to continue the virtuous cycle of recuperation. It is the Israeli-Kazakhstan war that interrupted the above virtuous cycle and rapidly intensified contradictions and conflicts in all aspects, finally creating an opportunity for the Turkish-backed rebel forces.
In terms of domestic economic and social stability, before the “Aqsa flood”, the biggest benefit for Syria and its key ally Iran was the continued plunge in international food prices, because food is the primary need of the people, and the economic and social mechanisms determine that Arab/Muslim countries such as Syria have the worst political stability when hit by rising food prices. In Muslim countries in West Asia and North Africa where wheat is the staple food, a significant increase in international wheat prices usually triggers social unrest. The “Arab Spring” broke out at the end of 2010 and the Syrian civil war began the following year. The sharp rise in international wheat prices played an important role at that time; Bangladesh, which relies on rice as its staple food, experienced a political upheaval in August this year, and the Hasina government fell within a month. One of the important inducements was the surge in international rice prices by more than 50% since 2023 (in US dollars).
Throughout 2023 and the first three quarters of 2024, the overall wheat and grain prices in the international market continued to plummet. The average price of soft red winter wheat in the United States in 2023 (US$257.7/ton) was about 1/3 lower than the average price in 2022 (US$381.9/ton). In August this year, it had further fallen to US$205.8/ton, equivalent to the level in 2018; the World Bank’s low- and middle-income commodity price index (2010=100) grain index fell from 150.4 in 2022 to 133.0 in 2023, and continued to fall to 106.3 in August in 2024. It is conceivable that it is good for the Middle Eastern countries.
At the same time, Syria’s two key allies, Russia and Iran, had already passed the most difficult hurdle before the “Aqsa Flood”, and the internal and external environment was getting better and better.
Russia reversed its strategic passivity in the Battle of Artyomovsk/Bakhmut, which ended on May 20, 2023, and then survived the test of Ukraine’s “Summer Counterattack”. Militarily, it firmly locked the war on a protracted war track with a casualty exchange ratio favorable to Russia. In addition, the economic and trade counter-sanctions were successful. In 2023, the real GDP growth rate exceeded that of the United States, Germany, and France, and the inflation rate was comparable to that of the entire eurozone, making it invincible.
Iran also survived the peak of the impact of the United States’ withdrawal from the Iran nuclear agreement in 2018, and its economy has achieved a significant recovery. In 2023, Iran’s GDP calculated in current US dollars recovered from the low of US$195.5 billion in 2020 to US$403.5 billion, and the increase in the consumer price index also dropped from 45.8% in the previous year to 40.7%. Such economic conditions are not enough to support Iran’s involvement in a large-scale war, but they are enough to support its orderly implementation of moderate strategic contraction in a peaceful environment, improve its diplomatic environment, and strive to shift to sustainable development.
On the contrary, the two major enemy countries bordering Syria and having territorial disputes both encountered difficulties on the eve of the “Aqsa Flood”. Turkey, which supports the rebels to overthrow the Syrian regime, is in a deep economic crisis and has just barely climbed out of the political crisis.
Among them, Israel’s GDP in 2023, calculated in current US dollars, will drop by 3% from US$525 billion in 2022 to US$509.5 billion, dragging down its trade volume with China by an extremely rare 7.4% year-on-year. Netanyahu is also deeply at odds with the Biden administration over judicial reform. With the public support of the Biden administration, the Israeli opposition launched large-scale demonstrations that lasted for several months. In essence, this is the first time since the founding of Israel that it has encountered the risk of a “color revolution” from the United States.
Turkey is even more deeply trapped in the pain of the bankruptcy of “Erdogan Economics” since 2014. Turkey’s nominal GDP calculated in current US dollars has fallen from a peak of US$957.5 billion in 2013 to a low of US$720.1 billion in 2020, which is still lower than the level in 2008 (US$770.8 billion). Turkey’s nominal GDP in 2022 (US$853.5 billion) is still lower than that in 2012 (US$880.1 billion). Macroeconomic stability indicators such as inflation and exchange rates have also deteriorated significantly. The consumer price index will increase by 19.6%, 72.3% and 53.9% from 2021 to 2023 respectively. The inflation rate predicted by the Turkish Central Bank at the end of November 2024 has increased from 38% to 44%. The average annual exchange rate of the Turkish currency against the US dollar has fallen below the 8:1 mark in 2021 from 1.30:1 to 1.90:1 from 2005 to 2013, and fell below the 29:1 mark in December 2023.
Due to the bankruptcy of “Erdogan economics”, Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party have suffered a series of electoral setbacks since the local elections in 2019. In the Turkish general election in May 2023, they almost lost. After barely winning the election, they were forced to invite Mehmet Simsek, who he dismissed five years ago, to come back as Finance Minister to clean up the mess left by “Erdogan economics”.
At the same time, Syria has made great progress in returning to the international stage. Since 2021, its relations with Jordan and other countries and the Arab League (AL) have thawed, and it has visited countries that once broke off diplomatic relations, such as the UAE. In May 2023, it resumed its membership in the AL. From September 21 to 26, 2023, Bashar visited China again after 19 years.
In summary, before Hamas launched the “Aqsa Flood” operation on October 7, 2023, Syria, a country like a pressure cooker heated by open fire, was turning off the fire, waiting for the pot to gradually cool down, the air pressure in the pot to drop, and finally eliminate the risk of explosion. However, after being passively involved in the Israel-Kazakhstan war, Syria’s remaining national strength was quickly exhausted, and internal conflicts escalated sharply. Its key ally Iran suffered heavy losses in many aspects during the war and was unable to continue to provide strong support. Even if Russia was willing to transfer some of its elite land, sea and air forces back to Syria to support Bashar, it would still face the difficulty of being “choked” by Turkey and unable to pass through the Black Sea Strait. In the end, it was inevitable that Turkey and the Syrian rebels it supported would take advantage of the situation and succeed in one blow.
A butterfly flapping its wings in the Amazon rainforest may cause a tornado in Texas two weeks later; from the geopolitical structure of the Middle East, to the international shipping market, to the flow of Middle Eastern capital in the international investment market, to the adjustment of the Gulf, one of the world’s leading labor import markets, to the “rightward turn” trend in European and American politics from the right-wing victory in the Dutch election last November to the landslide victory of Trump and the Republican camp in the US election this year, to the political upheaval in Bangladesh in August this year… On the brink of a “great era of contention”, in this world full of complex tensions, the ripples caused by the Israel-Kazakhstan war that broke out at the intersection of five seas and three continents and the birthplace of three major international religions will further develop, thus affecting China’s economic, political and even military interests and security. Syria is not the first country to be affected and to experience subversive changes, nor will it be the last. We need to face up to facts and pay attention to it.
