94Ha Viewpoint
Chinese President Xi Jinping held talks with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba during the APEC Leaders’ Informal Meeting in Lima, the capital of Peru, on November 15. This was the first summit between China and Japan less than a month after Shigeru Ishiba took office as Japanese Prime Minister. The two sides reached a consensus on comprehensively promoting the China-Japan strategic partnership and committed to building a constructive and stable China-Japan relationship that meets the requirements of the new era. At the same time, this meeting between the leaders of China and Japan was also held against the backdrop of Trump’s re-entry into the White House. Many analysts believe that China and Japan are getting closer because of the “Trump factor” in order to jointly deal with the various uncertainties of Trump 2.0. This seems to make sense. For example, Trump declared that he would impose a 60% tariff on China and took a negative attitude towards Nippon Steel’s acquisition of American Steel Corporation on the grounds of national security.
It is true that the United States has always been an important factor affecting China-Japan relations. However, if the improvement of China-Japan relations is influenced by the United States, it means immaturity and unsustainability. The author believes that in the past 10 years, the Sino-Japanese strategic relationship has evolved from the original US external factors-dominated relationship to the direction of autonomous improvement of Sino-Japanese relations by exploring their own momentum. Although the results are relatively slow, the general direction has emerged. Both sides should continue to work hard to improve and develop Sino-Japanese relations in this direction.
First, Trump 2.0 will accelerate Japan’s strategic autonomy, which is a challenge for Sino-Japanese relations, but also an opportunity. Trump’s “America First” concept is essentially a domestic priority, and his re-election is also because he grasped the public opinion. According to the Associated Press, the most answers to the most important issues in the United States in this election were economy and employment, accounting for 39%, immigration for 20%, abortion regulation for 11%, and medical care for 8%. In comparison, diplomacy, including China issues, did not become the focus of the election. Even in states such as Pennsylvania, where fierce battles were fought, the concern for the economy was also in the first place.
In his post-election speech, Trump also said that “now the first thing is to put America first.” Then, the inward-looking US means that it is no longer willing to intervene too much in international disputes, as can be seen from his meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky, in which he said he wanted to end the war. Trump 2.0 will still attach importance to alliances, but in a different way. He wants equal alliances. He believes that the US is too burdened and wants allies to pay more costs instead of free-riding. In terms of China policy, tough tariffs and other measures will be taken in the economy, and Taiwan, the South China Sea and other issues will be used as bargaining chips, but these are ultimately to reduce the burden on the US and serve the domestic agenda. For Japan, an inward-looking US means that Japan’s strategic reliance on the US will gradually disintegrate, and Japan will have to move towards strategic autonomy. How to get along with China will be the main test for Japan’s move towards strategic autonomy.
A strategically autonomous Japan may move towards the pre-war “Greater Japanism”, that is, the revival of militarism, which is of course dangerous for China. But at the same time, a strategically autonomous Japan also means that Japan will truly think about its own long-term interests under the great changes that have not happened in a century. Such a strategic cognitive framework will realize that Japan’s future development must be achieved in the construction of a stable and sustainable strategic relationship with China.
Second, if the Ukrainian crisis made Japan realize the decline of American power, then the Gaza crisis in the Middle East made Japan feel the loss of American international moral leadership. Following the United States means that Japan will become a minority in the international community.
The Gaza conflict has been going on for more than a year, killing more than 40,000 people. The war has also expanded to Lebanon and even involved countries such as Iran. For Japan, which is highly dependent on the Middle East for crude oil and energy, this is a big risk. The United States supports Israel and has become a minority in multilateral diplomacy such as the United Nations. In particular, the global South countries are extremely disgusted with the double standards of American values. For Japan, to gain a moral height in diplomacy, it is unsustainable to simply follow the United States. This is why in recent years, Japan no longer emphasizes democratic and liberal values like the United States as in the past, but expresses more international order based on the rule of law. To be based on the rule of law in the international community, first of all, it is necessary to be centered on the United Nations and based on international law. Another example is that Trump has indicated that he will withdraw from the Paris Agreement, which is also a risk for Japan, which is aligned with the United States in economic strategy. Japan’s green transformation policy is aligned with the 2022 US Inflation Reduction Act, which provides a large amount of subsidies. If the policy changes, it will be affected. Due to the risk of excessive alignment of Japan’s economic development strategy with the United States, strategic autonomy is also a need for economic development.
Third, the development of China and Japan is not affected by the third party factor of the United States. It has an autonomous relationship with its own momentum, which began in 2014. In 2010, China-Japan relations deteriorated due to the Diaoyu Islands collision incident. The United States promised that Article 5 of the Japan-US Security Treaty would apply to the Diaoyu Islands, and Japan released the detained Chinese captain. It seems that the US “mediation” has resolved the Sino-Japanese crisis, but this US-led model is extremely fragile. In China’s view, this is the United States abandoning its ambiguous position on territorial issues for many years and moving towards openly favoring Japan and intervening in disputes. In Japan’s view, although the United States promises that the treaty is applicable, if it truly protects the interests of its allies, it should recognize Japan’s territorial claims. This dissatisfaction was used by the then Tokyo Governor Shintaro Ishihara in 2012, who announced that Tokyo would purchase the Diaoyu Islands. Eventually, the Japanese government intervened and the Noda Cabinet announced nationalization. This also caused Sino-Japanese relations to fall to the lowest point since the restoration of diplomatic relations.
Before the APEC summit in Beijing in 2014, after multiple rounds of consultations, the two sides finally reached a four-point consensus on principles between Yang Jiechi and Shotaro Yachi, which can be said to be the beginning of an important effort by China and Japan to independently control their differences and disputes. In September this year, China and Japan reached a consensus on the discharge of nuclear contaminated water from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant into the sea, which also showed that China and Japan have the ability to independently manage their problems. During the Lima talks between the Chinese and Japanese leaders, Xi Jinping stated that reflecting the political consensus reached by both sides in specific policies and practical actions is the embodiment of building an autonomous relationship between China and Japan.
Trump 2.0 is full of uncertainty for China and Japan, but at the same time it also brings opportunities. If China and Japan want to truly build a constructive and stable relationship that meets the requirements of the new era, it must be de-centered thinking in order to develop an autonomous Sino-Japanese relationship.
