94Ha Viewpoint
I hope Trump still has a chance to end the war. Trump said he intends to end all wars during his presidency. Whether he can do it or not, we can only wait and see. If he can really work towards ending the war, it will be a good thing for the world and we should welcome him. Maybe he should follow Obama and strive for a Nobel Peace Prize.
President Biden, who will have to move out of the White House in two months, suddenly decided in mid-November to authorize Ukraine to use American-made weapons to attack Russia’s deep areas, which was seen as a major reversal of Washington’s policy on the Russian-Ukrainian war. A few days after the news broke, Ukraine indeed used Army Tactical Ballistic Missiles (ATACMS) to attack military targets in Russia. A day later, Ukraine launched the British long-range “Storm Shadow” missile into Russia for the first time.
The move by the United States and Britain has once again made the rumor that it may trigger the Third World War rampant, at least it has greatly increased the variables of this war. Russia said that Ukraine’s use of Western weapons to attack Russia’s homeland is equivalent to globalizing the war. Biden has always rejected Ukrainian President Zelensky’s request to attack Russia’s homeland with long-range missiles. Why did he change his mind when he was about to leave office? People have different interpretations of this. One view is that it is to show strength and stop Russia’s offensive. But more people seem to think that it is to make the mess in Ukraine worse, so that Trump, who claimed that he could stop the war within 24 hours, could not achieve his wish anyway.
During Biden’s term, although the United States hastily evacuated Afghanistan, it was entangled in the Russian-Ukrainian War and the Gaza War, a bit like getting out of the pot and into the fire, avoiding the pit and falling into the well. The Gaza War has now also extended to Lebanon. The two wars have been fought for three years and one year respectively, and the Biden administration has never been able to come up with a solution. The Russian-Ukrainian War is a proxy war, and the main supporter behind it is the United States, so it cannot be stopped. Israel is protected by the United States, while Washington is controlled by the so-called “Deep State” and the Israel Lobby, so it cannot be stopped. In fact, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu simply does not take Biden, who is about to step down, seriously.
During the campaign, Trump claimed that he could end the two wars quickly, but he was vague. It is unknown what ability he has to make Russia and Ukraine stop fighting in one day. No one knows how he can get Israel to quickly end the fighting in Gaza and Lebanon. Most observers therefore believe that Trump is just talking big, because both wars have complex factors and cannot be stopped just because they want to. Secondly, the “deep state” entrenched in Washington is powerful and it is impossible for Trump to succeed so easily.
In 2016, Trump registered the campaign slogan “Make America Great Again” (abbreviated as MAGA). Under this general slogan, there are several other derivative slogans, including: Make America powerful again (powerful, strong), wealthy (wealthy), healthy (healthy), proud (proud), and safe (safe). This year, Trump used the same slogan again, meaning that the United States has become great again during his first term, but Biden has messed it up again in the past four years, so it must be great again. The ministers he appointed are to make the United States powerful, healthy, wealthy, safe and proud again. This is equivalent to saying that the four years of Democratic rule are simply useless.
Trump claimed that he did not start any wars during his tenure and ridiculed Biden with this. He gives the impression of being anti-war, but not a dove of peace. He once ordered the targeted elimination of Qassem Soleimani, Iran’s most powerful commander. It is worth noting what actions he will take against Iran after taking office.
Trump also claims to be a master of negotiation and deal-making, and he can resolve the war by talking to people on both sides. It sounds a bit like what Sun Tzu said in the Art of War: conquer the enemy without fighting. He once explained that the United States can resolve international disputes without using troops because it has a strong military force and can achieve peace through strength (deterrence). Whether this is a bold statement or a lie, we will know in two months.
Let’s talk about the war in the Middle East first. Trump is a staunch supporter of Israel. During his previous term, he not only moved the US embassy in Israel to Jerusalem, but also unilaterally withdrew from the Iran nuclear agreement, recognized Israel’s sovereignty over the occupied Golan Heights, and promoted several Arab countries to recognize Israel one after another. In Trump’s mind, it seems that Palestine does not exist. Rubio, the candidate for Secretary of State he just nominated, is also pro-Israel and anti-Palestinian. He called Hamas members “cruel beasts.” From this point of view, any of Trump’s Middle East ceasefire plans will probably be at the expense of the interests of the Palestinians. During Trump’s four years in office, the Palestinians in Gaza will hardly have the opportunity to rebuild their homes that have been bombed into ruins.
If Trump really follows such a solution, he will probably have to pay a diplomatic price. Israel has bombed the Gaza Strip in the name of revenge for the Hamas terrorist attack on October 7, 2023, killing innocent people and expanding the war to southern Lebanon, which has caused widespread dissatisfaction among Arab countries. Therefore, it seems difficult for Trump to repeat the old tricks during this term to promote reconciliation between Arab countries and Israel, and the influence of the United States in the Middle East will decline. China’s influence has already extended into the Middle East and promoted reconciliation between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
Let’s talk about the Russian-Ukrainian war. The current situation is that Russia has captured several states in eastern Ukraine. Asking it to spit out the meat it has eaten is tantamount to seeking the skin of a tiger. But Trump does have the conditions to manipulate Zelensky. Ukraine’s arms are mainly supplied by the United States. As long as Trump calls a halt, Zelensky will find it difficult to survive and will have to sit down for negotiations. Of course, Ukraine will definitely suffer a loss. It will not be able to get back the lost land, and it will not be possible to return to the border drawn with Russia when it became independent in 1991. Many observers believe that the most likely peace talk plan is to freeze the conflict and draw a “38th parallel” ceasefire line similar to the Korean Peninsula.
But all this can only be hypothesis and speculation at present. After Biden approved Ukraine’s use of US missiles to attack targets in Russia, the Russian-Ukrainian war has fallen into a new uncertain stage. In the weeks before Trump takes over, what unexpected changes will happen is difficult to predict. Putin has launched a new hypersonic medium-range ballistic missile at the Ukrainian city of Dnipro, which is called a test, but in fact it is a stern warning. He said that Russia will continue to test this new missile, including testing under actual combat conditions, depending on the degree of security threat. No one knows what changes will occur in the Russian-Ukrainian war two months later.
In any case, I hope Trump still has a chance to end the war. After winning the election in November, Trump said he intended to end all wars during his presidency. Whether he can do it or not, we can only wait and see. But if he can really work towards ending the war after taking office, it will be a good thing for the world and we should welcome it. Maybe Trump should follow Obama’s example and strive for a Nobel Peace Prize.
The annual defense budget of the United States is as high as US$800 billion (S$1.08 trillion). According to data from the Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University, the United States spent a total of US$8 trillion on wars from fiscal years 2001 to 2022. If this money was not used to feed the US military-industrial complex, but was used to improve the national economy and people’s livelihood, today’s America would be a different picture, and populist politicians like Trump would not have the opportunity to come to power.
(The author is a former journalist and former congressman)
