94Ha Viewpoint
Before and after the Teze meeting, many EU countries supported Ukraine with actions and words. As an excellent actor and a politician who believes that only gambling can win, Zelensky naturally understood the script handed over by the EU and staged a “first suppress and then praise” drama, which won the general sympathy of the EU and the world, creating an image of Ukraine being bullied by the United States, making it easier for the EU to increase its support.
The public quarrel between Ukrainian President Zelensky and US President Trump and Vice President Vance in the White House on February 28 became a shocking freeze frame. Public opinion originally thought that Zelensky would rush to sign a mineral transfer agreement, and then the war would end under the leadership of the United States and Russia, but Zelensky dared to overturn the table and offend Trump. Comprehensive analysis shows that this is due to the recent increase in support from European countries, so that Ukraine will not be short of financial and military aid, and there are also manpower available in western Ukraine. It is currently still occupying part of Russia’s Kursk region, and the war situation has not yet deteriorated. Therefore, he assessed the situation and there was no need to sign a “capitulation” at this moment, and he could strive for more favorable conditions.
After the German election, the Union Party and the Social Democratic Party have not made any progress in forming a government, but the military strategy of strengthening the army to further support Ukraine has been put on the agenda. According to Bloomberg and Reuters, the special defense spending bill of 200 billion euros is ready in Congress, and part of it will obviously be used to aid Ukraine. Thanks to Merz’s financial support, Zelensky has the confidence to challenge Trump and Vance in the United States.
As soon as Trump came on the stage, the leader of the largest country in Europe was not the honest man Scholz, but Merz, an elite lawyer who was cunning and good at taking advantage of loopholes in regulations, which made the game suddenly change. The war between Russia and Ukraine may still be protracted and the outcome is unknown in the short term.
Europe supports Ukraine to consolidate collective defense
When the Iraq War broke out 22 years ago, German sociology master Habermas said that Europe has shared the fate of the United States since 1945, and now it is time to “untie this political umbilical cord.” But this umbilical cord was extended for 22 years. It was not until the Munich Security Conference on February 14 that the political umbilical cord was officially untied, with Vance’s angry curses and Munich Security Conference Chairman Heusgen’s sobs, sighing that Europe and the United States “no longer have a common value foundation.”
The European baby was born and took up arms to protect itself.
On the day the Munich Security Conference ended, German military enterprises knew first that the water in the river was warm, and their stocks rose one after another. From February 13 to 18, Germany’s largest military enterprise Rheinmetall rose by about 34%, and the old heavy industry enterprise ThyssenKrupp also rose by 20% on February 17. During the Russian-Ukrainian war, the German economy performed poorly, and military enterprises made war profits. According to the 2024 report of the Swedish Peace Research Institute SIPRI, Rheinmetall’s revenue increased by 10% in 2023, and Diehl, which produces guidance and air defense systems, increased by 30% in 2023. This proves that in the past few years, through the Ukrainian war, the EU, led by Germany and France, has strengthened its strategic autonomy in armaments.
After the Munich Security Conference, military autonomy has become the main political agenda of France, Germany and other countries. However, increasing military spending is often difficult to gain people’s support. It requires external enemies to gain people’s support, just as Mencius said: “If there is no enemy outside the country, the country will always perish.” The Iraq War highlighted the value differences between Europe and the United States, but it was a distant war after all, not an imminent crisis and value dispute. The Ukrainian War stimulated Europe to increase military spending significantly. For example, Germany’s military spending this year has reached 2% of its gross domestic product (GDP), doubling from before the war; French President Macron has vigorously advocated “European collective defense” and other plans to strengthen European military integration.
As for Merz, the hot candidate for German Chancellor, as a general who promoted the expansion of German defense spending and actively supported Ukraine, he himself is a “firm transatlanticist”. In the face of world changes, he said in the pre-election debate: “My first priority is absolutely to strengthen Europe as soon as possible so that we can truly achieve independence from the United States” and “Now my absolute priority is to build unity in Europe.”
The confirmed EU and the wind-like United States
In addition to Germany’s increased support, Zelensky also obtained new financial assistance after leaving the White House and moving to Buckingham Palace. British Prime Minister Starmer will provide a loan of 2.26 billion pounds on March 2, which is guaranteed by frozen Russian assets, which is equivalent to a gift. Before Biden left office, the United States provided another $2.5 billion in military aid and $3.4 billion in aid. Before the Ze meeting, the eight Nordic and Baltic countries took the lead in issuing a joint statement in support of Ukraine. The European Council unanimously passed a new round of sanctions against Russia and announced a new round of aid to Ukraine worth 3.5 billion euros, making Ukraine’s financial resources sufficient.
In fact, the latest report of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, a German think tank, on February 14 pointed out that from the outbreak of the war to the end of last year, among the countries that aided Ukraine, the EU amounted to 138 billion yuan, and the United States to 119 billion US dollars. The EU’s share is larger than that of the United States. Judging from the current situation, the United States is unpredictable under Trump. Instead of chasing the uncertain support of the United States, it is better to obtain the certain aid of the EU first. Before and after the Teze meeting, many EU countries supported Ukraine with actions and words. Zelensky, as an excellent actor and a politician who believes that only gambling can win, naturally appreciated the script handed over by the EU and staged a scene of “first suppressing and then promoting”, which won the general sympathy of the EU and the world, creating an image of Ukraine being bullied by the United States, making it easier for the EU to increase its support.
Under the premise of sufficient gold veins, the ceasefire conditions set by Trump seem extremely thin. Trump skipped the EU and Ukraine and negotiated with Putin alone, which is equivalent to the United States and Russia negotiating the conditions. Ukraine can only choose to accept or reject, and the United States will not provide any security guarantees, and there is no third party guarantee for the ceasefire agreement. Given Trump’s character, if Russia violates the agreement again, I’m afraid there won’t be much reaction.
Whether this is Trump’s “art of deal” or “art of deception” is hard to say. The 2014 Russia-Ukraine ceasefire “Minsk Agreement” was supervised by Germany, France and Belarus as guarantors, and was subject to supervision and verification of the ceasefire by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. The agreement was finally successfully maintained for eight years. Therefore, if the two sides want to reach a ceasefire agreement, there must be a guarantor, otherwise no one can guarantee that the agreement can be effectively implemented, let alone a truly long-term peace and end-of-war agreement.
For Ukraine, a reasonable ceasefire agreement is not supervised by the United States under the unpredictable Trump’s rule, but more likely a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, but with the European Union as the supervisor, and even China as the supervisor, and also participate in post-war reconstruction. As for Trump, if he completely cuts aid to Ukraine and withdraws militarily from Europe, he will not even be qualified to sit at the negotiating table when a real ceasefire agreement comes.
For Zelensky, from the perspective of interest calculation and his personality, he currently has the support of the European Union and may be able to strive for a more reasonable ceasefire agreement in the medium and long term. Why should he be afraid of turning the table with Trump and having a fierce exchange of fire with Trump and Vance in the White House?
