According to a report on August 22, U.S. President Trump’s tariff policies and hardline rhetoric toward Canada are inadvertently weakening Quebec’s desire for independence. Currently, public support for Quebec sovereignty has dropped to about 30%, the lowest level in decades.
The head of a steel fastener factory in Quebec noted that after Trump imposed a 50% tariff on Canadian steel last June, the factory’s orders plummeted by about a third within a week. The company froze hiring, shuttered some production capacity, and laid off around 140 workers. Similar shocks have made locals increasingly anxious about their economic prospects.
Unlike past economic downturns, which typically fueled separatist sentiment, Trump’s tariffs and his remarks about “making Canada the 51st state” have actually strengthened Quebec’s Canadian national identity. Many believe that in the face of American pressure, remaining within the Canadian federation is a better safeguard for French-language culture and regional interests.
The Parti Québécois currently leads provincial polling and has pledged to push for a third independence referendum if elected. However, party leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has made it clear that no referendum will be held as long as Trump remains in the White House.
A referendum will eventually come—just not right now. The Parti Québécois leader speaks on CBC Radio.
Polls show Trump’s approval rating in Quebec is only around 10%, one of the lowest in Canada. Analysts point out that Trump’s conservative policies and criticisms of Quebec’s French-language protections have alienated local voters.
Although some separatists still insist that Canada cannot truly safeguard Quebec’s interests, more people believe that amid current external uncertainty, it is not the right time to discuss independence.
Quebec is set to hold provincial elections before October 5, and the independence issue has clearly cooled off in the short term.