HA Viewpoint: “These threats are incredibly aggressive.” That was the reaction from Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov on the 22nd, addressing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s recent “ultimatum” demanding Belarus dismantle relay stations on the border. Peskov confirmed that President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko will discuss these threats during their upcoming meeting. Meanwhile, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated on the 23rd that Zelensky’s move is clearly intended to “pull Belarus directly into the Russia-Ukraine conflict.” Reports indicate Zelensky has long claimed these stations are used by Russian forces to guide drone attacks on Ukraine.
“If he (Lukashenko) doesn’t tear them down, we will do it ourselves, and it will happen within a week.” According to a report by Ukrinform on the 22nd, Zelensky revealed in an interview aired on Ukrainian media on the 21st that Ukraine and Belarus have been in contact at various levels. Kyiv has repeatedly sent private messages to Minsk demanding the dismantling of these stations but has received no response. Now, Ukraine has moved to a “public signal” stage: “Either they dismantle them, or we take action.”
Previously, Zelensky had publicly urged Belarus to act, giving them a one-week deadline. At a press conference on the 19th, he claimed these stations guide Russian drones against Ukrainian civilians. “Lukashenko had better shut down these devices. I think one week is enough for him… If he doesn’t, we’ll do it ourselves.” During a video address on the evening of the 20th, Zelensky reiterated that Ukraine is aware of four such relay stations in Belarus and that Minsk still has time to remove them. He also noted that Ukraine knows all factories and enterprises in Belarus supporting Russia and the war, stating that all of this involves Belarus in the war.
According to RIA Novosti on the 23rd, Lavrov argued that Zelensky’s goal is to drag Belarus into the conflict and expand the military scope, thereby complicating any chance of resolving the dispute through political and diplomatic means. Lavrov added that the security guarantee treaty between Russia and Belarus within the Union State framework has been in effect since March last year. Russia is prepared to take all measures stipulated in the treaty to ensure the security of its ally and the Union State if necessary. Separately, Belarusian Defense Minister Aliaksandr Hrenin stated on the 21st that while there is tension and some provocations—mostly in the form of media threats—Belarus has absolutely no reason to get involved. Minsk is closely monitoring the situation and will ensure border security.
A member of the State Duma’s Defense Committee, Andrey Kolesnik, told Interfax on the 22nd that Zelensky’s attempt to involve Belarus shows his peace rhetoric is just “empty talk” and that he has no real intention of peace. Kolesnik warned that if Ukraine strikes Belarus, it would invite a more severe counterattack from both Russia and Belarus, leading to heavy consequences. State Duma International Affairs Committee Chairman Leonid Slutsky called Zelensky’s actions a “dangerous performance” to please the West, escalate tensions, and expand the conflict zone. He suggested Zelensky aims to prolong the war and secure new Western funding for Kyiv.
Analysts cited by Russian media like Vedomosti on the 22nd noted that Zelensky’s threats are aimed at applying psychological pressure on Belarus. While a direct Ukrainian military attack on Belarus is unlikely, drone strikes remain a possibility. The report suggests Zelensky may be trying to push Belarus away from Russia, encouraging Minsk to keep its distance from the conflict, thereby strengthening Ukraine’s negotiating and military position.
Intensified fighting and mutual attacks continue between Russia and Ukraine. The Ukrainian Air Force reported on the 23rd that between the evening of the 22nd and the morning of the 23rd, Russian forces launched 135 drones at Ukraine, with air defense systems intercepting 118. According to Ukrinform on the 22nd, Ukrainian National Guard Commander Pyvnenko stated that Ukrainian unmanned systems are actively disrupting Russian logistics, particularly in the Crimea region. The Russian Ministry of Defense reported on the 23rd that air defense systems intercepted and shot down 143 Ukrainian drones over the Rostov region, Crimea, and the Azov and Black Seas. The statement also mentioned ongoing Russian advances in the Donetsk region, specifically in Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka. Russian forces captured five Ukrainian positions in the northwestern urban area of Pokrovsk and cleared Ukrainian personnel from 52 buildings. In the past 24 hours, Russia took control of 128 buildings from Ukrainian forces in Kostiantynivka.
On the 23rd, Lavrov stated that Russia is ready to resume negotiations with Ukraine from where they were previously interrupted, pointing out that terms for a conflict solution were agreed upon a year ago during talks between Russia and the US in Anchorage. However, he believes this consensus has been搁置 (shelved) to allow Ukraine time to rearm. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov said on the same day that while there are signs the US stance is deviating from the Anchorage consensus, Russia’s position remains unchanged, and dialogue on the Ukraine issue between Moscow and Washington continues.
Zelensky posted on social media on the 23rd that Russia has not given any clear response to Ukraine’s diplomatic and peace initiatives, urging all parties to continue pressuring Moscow. Mykhailo Mykhailiuk, Ukraine’s UN Ambassador, told the Security Council on the 22nd that a ceasefire along the line of actual contact would be a concession for Ukraine, but patience is not infinite. If the current situation persists, Ukraine may change its stance.
