As the United States’ credibility continues to erode, Gulf countries are actively reshaping the new normal in their relationship with Iran.
Headlines recently suggested that Gulf nations plan to exclude the US from any agreements with Iran. Reports indicate that countries such as Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Qatar are engaging in direct, high-level talks with Tehran, aiming to establish a regional security framework of their own.
Since the initial understanding between Iran and the US, Oman has already held its first meeting with Tehran to discuss the management of the Strait of Hormuz. Following this, Oman will hold talks with Qatar, while Iran will meet with Saudi Arabia, and Qatar with Saudi Arabia.
According to reports, this flurry of diplomatic activity is just the beginning. The Gulf states are adjusting to this new reality, and more meetings are expected. The discussions will cover how to manage shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and what economic incentives the Gulf states might offer Iran in exchange for security concessions.
Notably, these talks are happening concurrently with, yet independently of, the broader US-Iran negotiations.
“The US credibility has dropped significantly, and this has been the case for many years,” said Gholamreza Afkham, a senior researcher at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “The current thinking in the Gulf is, ‘We just need to reach our own memorandum of understanding with Iran.’ If the Gulf states really strike their own deal, it wouldn’t be surprising.”
Despite these private maneuvers, public statements from Gulf countries still align with the US. Recently, the foreign ministers of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) met with US Secretary of State Rubio and issued a joint statement emphasizing the importance of “free, unconditional, and unhindered navigation” and opposing “any tolls, fees, or attempts to exert control over the strait.”
“From their perspective, this is a red line,” noted Aniseh Bassiri Tabrizi, an Iran expert at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI).
However, diplomats and experts in the Gulf region emphasize that Iran is unlikely to easily give up what it considers its “ultimate trump card.” Gulf states need to maintain a realistic attitude regarding the potential outcomes of US-Iran talks.
“Iran now realizes it possesses a weapon more effective than nuclear weapons—the Strait of Hormuz. They can deploy it at any time, so there will likely be some arrangement that allows Iran to retain its leverage,” Tol said. “They will do everything in their power to keep this card.”
Although shipping through the Strait of Hormuz gradually resumed after the US and Iran reached an understanding earlier this month, tensions flared again last week. On the 27th, the US military struck multiple targets inside Iran, citing Iranian attacks on commercial ships in waters near the Strait.
Following these strikes, both sides agreed to halt further attacks ahead of negotiations scheduled for Tuesday in Qatar.
Yasmin Farouk, head of the Arab Gulf States program at the International Crisis Group, stated that even without these recent attacks, “the Gulf states were already preparing for the possibility that the situation would not return to normal.” “On the regional track of discussions, they are taking matters into their own hands.”
Reports suggest that Saudi Arabia is expected to play a leading role in broader regional security negotiations. Meanwhile, individual direct meetings between various countries and Iran regarding the management of the Strait of Hormuz highlight the region’s growing move away from its heavy reliance on the United States.
