On July 10, U.S. President Donald Trump said he has agreed to Iran’s request to keep “dialogue” going, but he stressed that the ceasefire agreement—between the U.S. and Israel against Iran—is over.
As the state funeral for the late Supreme Leader Khamenei entered its final day on the 9th, the ceasefire memorandum between Iran and the U.S. has essentially been voided. Meanwhile, Pakistan, Qatar, and other regional mediators are pushing both the U.S. and Iran to de-escalate tensions and resume talks over Iran’s nuclear program.
According to insiders, Qatari negotiators have arrived in Iran and are set to meet with Iranian officials to ease the situation and create conditions for ongoing talks. This round of discussions aims to address the implementation of the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding, as well as recent issues that have escalated the conflict, including disputes over navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.
In the words of U.S. officials, the situation has quieted down considerably. Although there were reports of another explosion in southern Iran, U.S. forces did not launch a new wave of strikes. Trump convened his national security team on the afternoon of the 9th to discuss the Iran issue. After the meeting, a U.S. official said the Trump administration remains committed to finding a solution, and technical consultations on reaching a nuclear deal with Iran are ongoing.
The recent flare-up in hostilities between Iran and the U.S. was triggered by attacks on commercial ships from several third-party nations as they passed through the Strait of Hormuz.
After the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding was signed, the Strait of Hormuz had two main shipping lanes: the northern lane, controlled by Iran, and the southern lane, near Oman, where the U.S. Navy provides navigation assistance. Despite Iran repeatedly demanding that ships use the northern lane closer to its coast, the U.S. Navy continues to recommend that commercial vessels take the other route.
Earlier this week, multiple commercial ships from countries like Saudi Arabia and Qatar reported being attacked by drones while passing through the Strait of Hormuz on the Omani side. Two of these vessels were hit and suffered significant damage. Saudi Arabia and Qatar condemned these attacks, saying they targeted commercial ships operated by innocent civilians in international waters, calling them unjustified, highly dangerous, and a clear violation of the ceasefire agreement.
Based on cross-referencing multiple authoritative news sources, the memorandum of understanding signed by the U.S. and Iran on June 17 did not specify that transiting ships must comply with Iran’s designated routes or reporting requirements. This ambiguity became the immediate trigger for the subsequent escalation of conflict between the two sides. After this round of hostilities, Iran realized that the Strait of Hormuz is a major bargaining chip in its game with the U.S., and even after signing a ceasefire memo, it would continue to strengthen its control over the strait.
In response to Iran opening fire on commercial ships of various nationalities, the U.S. Central Command launched a series of strikes against Iran starting in the early hours of the 8th. The strikes hit more than 80 targets, including air defense systems, coastal surveillance systems, surface-to-air missiles, anti-ship cruise missiles, and drone launch sites. At least eight members of Iran’s Army Aviation and Navy were killed. Additionally, a missile strike on a dock in Hormozgan Province killed two fishermen and injured two others.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy issued a statement saying other countries have “no right to interfere” in the affairs of the Strait of Hormuz. Over the past two weeks, Iran has gradually reopened the strait, and its current transit capacity has recovered to about 50% of pre-war levels. Although U.S. actions have severely disrupted the process of reopening the strait, the IRGC Navy continues to work on increasing vessel passage capacity.
Due to the ongoing clashes between the U.S. and Iran, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped sharply, and commercial shipping leaving the Persian Gulf via the strait has largely come to a standstill.
A joint maritime intelligence center based in Bahrain issued a notice stating that the security threat level in the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding waters remains severe. However, it emphasized that the southern shipping lane has been expanded and remains open to all vessels. The notice advises ships to coordinate with the Combined Maritime Forces when transiting, but this is not mandatory, and vessels can also pass through the southern lane without coordination.