Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is facing increasing pressure to step down due to the public resignation of his key ally, Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland on December 12, and his own low poll numbers. But he has not shown any intention to leave, making Canadian politics turbulent. Trudeau’s political experience represents the common dilemma of the current Western institutional elites. Populism, represented by US President-elect Trump, is impacting the existing political structure of Western countries with an unstoppable momentum, and the consequences will inevitably accelerate the increasingly reversed economic globalization. Therefore, the development of Canadian politics may be a window to glimpse the future development trend of the world.
Trudeau’s political crisis began when Trump threatened to impose a 25% tariff on Canadian exports to the United States to force Canada to control illegal immigration and drug smuggling to the United States. Although Trudeau then humbled himself and made a special trip to Trump’s Mar-a-Lago in Florida on November 30 to seek advice, Trump still publicly humiliated Trudeau after the meeting and posted on social media calling him the governor of the Canadian state in the United States. Despite this, a Canadian poll published in early December found that 26% of Canadians approve of Trump, higher than Trudeau’s 23%. Trudeau’s silence after being humiliated has caused dissatisfaction in Canadian public opinion and accelerated the loss of public opinion.
Freeland broke with Trudeau mainly because she opposed Trudeau’s fiscal policy of increasing spending to win voter support. She advocated retaining “budget ammunition” to deal with Trump’s tariff threats. This shows that the fuse of Canada’s current political crisis is undoubtedly Trump. But the ice is not frozen in a day. Trudeau led the Liberal Party to win the general election in 2015. At the age of 43, he became the second youngest prime minister of Canada. He then led the Liberal Party to win the 2019 and 2021 general elections. However, Trudeau’s strong suppression of truck drivers’ protests against the coronavirus lockdown in 2022 was the beginning of his loss of grassroots public opinion. The public security and other social problems caused by his loose immigration policy further aroused voter dissatisfaction.
Canada’s economy performed poorly during Trudeau’s administration, with per capita income growth ranking third from the bottom among the 30 OECD member countries; high tax rates led to capital flight, idealistic environmental policies weakened Canada’s competitive advantage in oil and mining, and loose immigration policies pushed up housing prices, causing dissatisfaction among young people. Inflation and the gap between the rich and the poor have continued to worsen in recent years. A survey conducted by polling agency Ipsos on December 20 found that 45% of the people supported the opposition Conservative Party, only 20% supported the Liberal Party, and the Liberal Party’s ally the New Democratic Party also had only 20% support. If a general election is held now, the Liberal Party will inevitably be defeated. This may also be the reason why the anti-Trudeau forces within the Liberal Party are afraid to act rashly.
Despite opposition from both inside and outside the party, Trudeau has still insisted on governing, and the Liberal Party lacks clear rules for replacing the prime minister. On December 19, he vigorously reorganized the cabinet, replacing eight ministers and adjusting the positions of four ministers. Despite this, an open letter from the party calling for his resignation appeared on December 23. Canada must hold a general election by October 2025. The Conservatives launched three rounds of no-confidence votes against the government in 2024, but all failed due to opposition from the New Democratic Party. However, the New Democratic Party decided in September this year to stop supporting the Liberal government, but the Conservatives must wait until the new parliamentary session in March 2025 before they have the opportunity to launch another no-confidence vote.
Like most Western governments, the Trudeau government is part of an elite group that supports economic globalization, but now faces a backlash from national populism represented by Trump. A single leaf can tell the autumn. Since the US Democratic Party, which also promotes globalism, lost the election, a domino effect seems to be happening. Major Western countries such as Germany, France and the United Kingdom are now facing a situation where institutional elites are facing strong nationalist grassroots opposition forces, and they may all be replaced. In addition to accelerating the current anti-economic globalization trend, the rise of populism in Western countries may also change or end progressive agendas such as addressing climate change, promoting green energy, environmental protection, and preventing infectious diseases.
Like Canada, the rise of nationalism and populism in the Western world will further change the existing geopolitical landscape. Some analysts believe that Trump’s election as US president in 2016 marked the beginning of a change in the status quo. Trump’s defeat in 2020 did not change this trend. With his comeback in 2024, this force seems to be even stronger. Musk, the richest man in the United States who heavily funded Trump’s entry into the White House, is now actively involved in supporting the German Alternative for Germany party with a strong nationalist color, and the British Reform Party with a similar party platform – its number of members has just surpassed the largest opposition party, the Conservative Party – which seems to indicate that sovereign states and national cultural identity are becoming the new era spirit of the world.
