After a pause that lasted only three days, the United States and Iran have traded fresh blows once more.
U.S. Central Command reported on social media on July 28 that Iran launched a missile attack on American forces stationed in Jordan that same day, with all incoming projectiles successfully intercepted. In response, American and Saudi forces struck targets in Iraq’s Diyala Province that were “Iranian-backed,” resulting in the deaths of four members of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard.
China’s embassy in Iraq has advised Chinese citizens in the country to stay alert to local security developments, strengthen their safety awareness, minimize non-essential outings, steer clear of sensitive areas such as military installations and crowded public spaces, and make preparations for personal safety and emergency response.
On the evening of July 29 local time, the U.S. escalated with airstrikes on southern Iran, hitting dozens of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps targets—including military command centers, missile and drone facilities, coastal surveillance and defense positions, and infrastructure tied to maritime combat capabilities.
In parallel, the situation around the world’s “oil valve” has grown more tense. The U.S. Treasury announced a fresh round of sanctions aimed at Iran’s attempts to generate revenue through the Strait of Hormuz, blacklisting 10 entities and 8 additional oil tankers.
Meanwhile, sources in the Gulf region revealed that Oman has floated a proposal to Iran for jointly managing shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The proposed framework, modeled on the Malacca Strait approach, would rely on voluntary contributions from users to a fund supporting channel maintenance, environmental protection, and search-and-rescue operations.
Iran has flatly rejected Oman’s overture, maintaining that it must control the entire inbound shipping lane and portions of the outbound route through the strait. Tehran argues that Oman’s control should reflect its actual share of the waterway, and that a joint management mechanism with equal shares would run counter to Iranian interests.
An Iranian official disclosed that the United States and Saudi Arabia are pressuring Oman to push forward with what Tehran views as an “unrealistic” plan for the strait.
Earlier this month, Iran’s parliament formally introduced the “Strategic Action for Security and Sustainable Process of the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf” bill. The head of parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, Aziz, wrote on social media that this bill represents Iran’s first step in defending its red line over Hormuz management, with supplementary measures expected to follow.
Core provisions of the bill include: the Iranian government, in coordination with its armed forces, would offer navigation guidance, channel inspections, and compliance assessments for transiting vessels—and would hold the authority to bar ships linked to hostile nations. Additionally, ship owners or insurers of vessels passing through would be required to open rial-denominated accounts with Iranian financial institutions.
The bill now heads to a parliamentary committee for review, followed by a full vote and scrutiny by the Guardian Council for constitutional compliance. No timeline has been made public.
Although nearly all of the strait’s deep-water shipping lanes fall within Oman’s territorial waters, Iran exercises full operational control. Under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, littoral states of international straits cannot arbitrarily restrict or levy tolls on passage.
U.S. intelligence assessments suggest Iran hopes to leverage service fees from vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to fund post-war reconstruction. Iranian estimates indicate that charging for security, environmental, and related services in the strait could generate as much as $40 billion annually for the countries involved.
Iran has repeatedly stated its intention to charge ships a “maritime service fee”—not a transit toll. This fee would cover the costs of navigational aid, search and rescue, and pollution prevention. Charges would be tiered based on vessel tonnage, type, and cargo, with oil tankers and other large, high-risk ships paying more than ordinary freighters.
Recently, the Iranian government also established the “Persian Gulf Strait Authority,” whose regulatory reach extends to underwater pipelines and data cables running beneath the strait.
Markets are growing increasingly anxious over the escalation in the Middle East and the potential for crude supply disruptions. Analysts at ING note that with Saudi oil infrastructure facing heightened attack risks, the likelihood of supply interruptions is climbing. At the same time, tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has largely ground to a halt.
As of July 29, international oil prices continued their upward march—WTI crude futures jumped 7.39% to $85.114 per barrel, while Brent crude futures gained 6.73% to $87.601 per barrel.
