As various parties move to implement the US-Iran memorandum of understanding, the bottlenecks at the world’s most critical energy trade artery are finally starting to clear.
According to reports from CCTV News, US Energy Secretary Wright stated on June 24 (Eastern Time) that 72 vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours, transporting approximately 20 million barrels of crude oil. He emphasized that Iran will no longer be able to arbitrarily control this “key chip.”
The implementation of the US-Iran memorandum has shattered the market’s previous panic expectations regarding a potential blockade of the strait, triggering a rapid correction in oil prices. On the same day, global benchmark oil prices, specifically Brent Crude, fell back to levels seen before the outbreak of war in the region.
By market close, August-delivery light crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange dropped by $2.87 to close at $70.34 per barrel, a decline of 3.92%; while August-delivery Brent crude oil futures in London fell by $3.34 to close at $73.74 per barrel, down 4.33%.
Daan Struyven, Co-Head of Global Commodity Research at Goldman Sachs, noted that oil bulls had misjudged the extent of the price drop once the situation with Iran eased, as the market “underestimated the flexibility of the system.”
Factors contributing to the erroneous prediction that oil prices would remain high included crude oil inventory levels in storage facilities, the ability for some Middle Eastern countries like Saudi Arabia to bypass the Strait of Hormuz via land pipelines, and the scale of crude supply from outside the region.
Goldman Sachs estimated that by May, global crude oil supply had increased by 3 million barrels year-on-year, with particularly strong growth from countries like Brazil and the United States. The Struyven team lowered its fourth-quarter Brent crude price forecast from $90 per barrel to $80 last week.
A report published by Allianz Commercial, a global insurance and risk management firm, indicated that as of June 15, the total value of affected ships and cargo was approximately $125 billion, with a total tonnage of about 29 million gross tons.
The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has also released detailed operational guidelines for the evacuation plan in the Strait of Hormuz. It stated that more than 11,000 crew members stranded on ships in the Gulf region and approximately 600 detained vessels would be evacuated in phases under a unified coordination mechanism.
The organization stated that it has already secured the necessary safety guarantees to implement the evacuation plan. Due to the threat of naval mines in certain areas of the strait, traditional ship routing lanes are temporarily suspended. Coastal nations will ensure the safe passage of vessels through temporary routes and traffic control measures.
Under the arrangement, Iran is responsible for traffic management and navigation coordination on the northern route, while Oman and the United States handle coordination for the southern route. The IMO is primarily responsible for the overall framework design and phased evacuation coordination, while specific navigation safety and traffic management are handled by the coastal states.
The Naval Forces of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran issued a statement on social media on June 25, saying that vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz must coordinate with the IRGC Navy, and non-compliant ships “will face处置 (consequences).” Previously, some institutions announced new routes for ships passing through the strait without consulting Iran, which Iran deemed unacceptable and extremely dangerous.
Oman and Iran have agreed to maintain dialogue through a joint working group established between their foreign ministries, with both sides cooperating to manage shipping and related costs. Meanwhile, Iran has ceased emphasizing the requirement for future fees. The country had previously stated its plan to charge a “maritime service fee” rather than a transit fee for ships crossing the strait, a move that faced opposition from multiple parties.
A report released earlier this week by Commodity Data Analytics Company Kpler indicated that there are currently about 118 fully loaded tankers stranded in the Persian Gulf, waiting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. It will still take 10 to 15 days to clear this backlog of vessels. If hundreds more ships await passage in the future, the order of transit will become a key factor affecting the efficiency of shipping recovery.
At the same time, market conditions have not been without fluctuations. Israel’s continued bombing of Lebanon has delayed US-Iran negotiations, introducing uncertainty into the pace of supply recovery.
Currently, a new round of negotiations between Israel and Lebanon is taking place in Washington, D.C. Iran has previously stated multiple times that Israel’s strikes on Lebanon during the ceasefire could affect the progress of US-Iran negotiations; Israel, however, claims these actions are defensive measures against Hezbollah.
