Japan’s Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare released preliminary population statistics on February 26, showing that the number of newborns in 2025, including those born to foreigners, will reach a record low of 705,809, a 2.1% decrease compared to the same period last year.
Three years ago, the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research estimated that the number of births, including those to foreigners, would fall to around 700,000 by 2042; this figure has now been significantly brought forward.
In fact, last year’s birth rate was the lowest since comparable data became available in 1899, decreasing by 30% over the past decade, although the rate of decline has slowed. The average annual decrease is expected to exceed 5% between 2022 and 2024.
Furthermore, the number of marriages in Japan is projected to increase by 1.1% in 2025, reaching 505,656 couples, exceeding 500,000 for the first time in three years and marking the second consecutive year of increase.
Given that the declining birthrate problem has occurred much earlier than the government’s estimates, some media outlets have pointed out the need to redesign the system of benefits and dependency ratios.
The declining birthrate crisis emerged as early as the 1960s, but the Japanese authorities only elevated countermeasures to a national level at the end of the 20th century. This included measures such as increasing the number of staff in childcare centers through the “Angel Project” and the “New Angel Project,” enriching childcare services for infants and toddlers, and implementing a childcare leave allowance system.
The Liberal Democratic Party’s Fumio Kishida government, which came to power in October 2021, believed there was still time to address the issue, and that the window of opportunity would close within the next six or seven years. Therefore, it launched a series of countermeasures and increased investment.
Katsuhisa Kojima of the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, in his article “Challenges Facing Japan’s Social Security System,” explains that these measures have proven to have had limited effectiveness. The country’s total fertility rate hit a low of 1.26 in 2005 and recorded a historic low of 1.20 in 2023.
In contrast, in another East Asian country also mired in a demographic crisis, South Korea saw 254,500 births last year, an increase of 16,100 (6.8%) year-on-year, marking the second consecutive year of growth after 2024 and the largest increase since 2010 (an increase of 25,000 year-on-year).
The main reasons for this positive development include the impact of the “echo baby boom,” government policy support, and other social and economic factors.
Over the years, the South Korean government has implemented a series of supportive policies, including providing childcare subsidies, expanding childcare facilities, increasing financial incentives for state-run childcare services, and providing more benefits for parents with multiple children. Specifically, families with infants under one year old receive a monthly subsidy of 1 million won (approximately 4,980 yuan), while those caring for children aged one to two years receive 500,000 won per month.
