The St. Louis Cardinals’ postseason odds have dwindled to 4.2%, per FanGraphs. Without Jordan Walker and Joshua Báez, that number would be zero.
The outfield has been a structural liability all season. Injuries to veterans, a carousel of fringe replacements, and inconsistent lineup decisions have produced a group that ranks 27th in MLB in outfield WAR (1.8) and 24th in OPS (.691). Defensive metrics are no kinder: -12 Outs Above Average, 28th in the league.
Yet over the last 35 games, the Cardinals have gone 18-17. That is not a fluke. It is the direct result of two rookies refusing to play like rookies.
Walker is hitting .312 with a .879 OPS since June 15. He has 14 home runs and 41 RBIs in that span. His clutch numbers are stark: .389 batting average with runners in scoring position and two outs. Coaches privately describe his at-bat quality as “beyond his years.” His defensive range has improved from -4 OAA in April to +2 since July.
Báez came up from Double-A on July 3. He has not slowed down. A .301 average, 9 stolen bases in 11 attempts, and an average exit velocity of 91.4 mph—top 15% of the league. His 29.1 ft/sec sprint speed ranks in the 96th percentile. He has made four catches classified as “improbable” by Statcast.
They are not just productive. They are complementary.
The table below isolates their production against the Cardinals’ outfield baseline:
| Metric | Walker (since Jun 15) | Báez (since Jul 3) | Cardinals OF Rest |
|---|---|---|---|
| Batting Average | .312 | .301 | .228 |
| OPS | .879 | .824 | .638 |
| Home Runs | 14 | 5 | 9 |
| WAR | 2.1 | 1.4 | -0.7 |
| Outs Above Average | +2 | +4 | -18 |
The remaining schedule is unforgiving. Thirty-five games. Twenty-two against divisional opponents, including a four-game set in Cincinnati starting Thursday. The Reds have the third-best bullpen ERA in the National League (3.41). They are not a soft landing spot.
The playoff math is simple. The Cardinals trail the Brewers by 5.5 games for the final Wild Card spot. They need to win at least 22 of their remaining games to have a realistic chance. That means the duo must maintain their current pace against left-handed pitching—a weakness for both (Walker: .238 vs LHP; Báez: .242 vs LHP). The Reds will throw lefty Andrew Abbott in Game 1. Expect the book to be aggressive.
The supporting cast remains a question mark. Nolan Arenado has a .721 OPS since August 1. The starting rotation outside of Sonny Gray and Erick Fedde has a 5.12 ERA in the second half. The bullpen has blown 11 saves.
None of that matters if Walker and Báez produce. They are the only reason this team is not already eliminated.
The front office has taken notice. Trade discussions this winter will center on pitching and a right-handed bat to protect Walker in the order. The outfield is no longer a problem to solve. It is a foundation to build upon.
The Reds series will not decide the season. But it will reveal whether this team has any fight left. Walker and Báez have answered every test so far. The next four days will be their hardest.
💡 Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
- Q: How have Jordan Walker and Joshua Báez impacted the Cardinals’ postseason chances?
- A: Their production has kept the Cardinals competitive, turning a near-zero postseason probability into 4.2% by providing key hitting and defense.
- Q: What are Jordan Walker’s key stats since June 15?
- A: Walker is hitting .312 with a .879 OPS, 14 home runs, and 41 RBIs, plus a .389 average with runners in scoring position and two outs.
- Q: What has Joshua Báez contributed since his call-up?
- A: Báez is batting .301 with 9 stolen bases, an average exit velocity of 91.4 mph, and elite sprint speed, making four improbable catches.
- Q: Why is the Cardinals’ outfield considered a liability?
- A: The group ranks 27th in outfield WAR (1.8), 24th in OPS (.691), and 28th in Outs Above Average (-12), highlighting overall poor performance.
Extended Reading
– MLB.com: Joshua Báez, Jordan Walker form fearsome duo for Cardinals
– Viva El Birdos: StL Cardinals S.O.S. For The Last 35 Games
– St. Louis Post-Dispatch: How to watch Cardinals at Reds, TV, live stream, game time
