Grant Holmes starts Thursday’s makeup game against the White Sox. The Atlanta Braves (74-53) face Chicago (66-60) in a rescheduled series finale. Holmes is the most underrated pitcher in MLB this week. Here is the data behind that claim, and how it shifts the betting line.
The original series was delayed by weather. August 20 became the new date. Holmes (ATL) faces Anthony Kay (CWS). The Braves are chasing the division lead. The White Sox are fighting for a wild card spot. Makeup games create fatigue mismatches. Holmes benefits from a fresher bullpen.
Kay has been inconsistent. He posts a 4.80+ ERA in his last five starts. The White Sox are 8-12 in their last 20 games. Atlanta is 12-8 over the same stretch.
Holmes’ numbers are quietly elite. He has a 2.90 ERA and 10.5 K/9 in his last four starts. His slider generates a 35% whiff rate, among the best in MLB. He induces weak contact, ranking in the bottom 10% in hard-hit rate. His pitch mix—four-seam fastball, slider, changeup—keeps hitters off balance. Advanced metrics confirm it: expected batting average and ground-ball percentage are both strong.
The “underrated” label stems from lack of national TV exposure. Not performance.
Chicago’s lineup struggles against right-handed pitching. Since July 1, the White Sox rank 22nd in OPS versus RHP. Luis Robert Jr. has a 28% strikeout rate against sliders. Andrew Vaughn hits just .212 against high-velocity fastballs (95+ mph). The White Sox are worse on the road in day games. Their aggressive approach plays into Holmes’ pitch-to-contact style. He keeps the ball down. That neutralizes Chicago’s power threat.
The narrative that Holmes and the Braves “may struggle” is overblown. The Braves’ bullpen is rested and elite—second in MLB in bullpen ERA since July 1. The total is set at 8.5 or 9. Take the under. Kay’s walk rate is a gift for Atlanta’s patient hitters. Sharp money is on Atlanta -120. The contrarian play: White Sox +1.5 at plus money if you believe Holmes’ luck evens out.
Fan sentiment from the Yahoo Sports game thread reflects the market split. Braves fans worry about Holmes’ pitch count and bullpen usage. White Sox fans point to their lineup’s home run potential. Many fans see Holmes as a fringe starter. Advanced stats say otherwise. Public money is split. Sharp bettors lean toward Atlanta’s run-line cover.
Best bets: Braves -1.5 (+150). Under 9 runs (-110). Player prop: Grant Holmes over 6.5 strikeouts (+120). Anthony Kay under 4.5 strikeouts (-130). Holmes’ strikeout props are mispriced due to his unknown status. Kay’s low strikeout rate and high walk rate make him a liability. The Braves’ lineup is third in wRC+ against left-handed pitching.
Predicted final score: Braves 5, White Sox 2.
Holmes deserves more recognition. He is a must-watch for fantasy and betting purposes. The Braves’ depth makes them a serious World Series contender. Betting on underrated pitchers often yields value. This is one of those weeks.
💡 Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
- Q: What makes Grant Holmes the most underrated pitcher this week?
- A: Holmes’ stats are elite—2.90 ERA, 10.5 K/9, and a 35% whiff rate on his slider—but he lacks national TV exposure, making him underrated despite his performance.
- Q: How does the White Sox lineup fare against right-handed pitching?
- A: Since July 1, the White Sox rank 22nd in OPS versus right-handed pitchers, with key hitters like Luis Robert Jr. and Andrew Vaughn struggling against sliders and high-velocity fastballs.
Extended Reading
Source material for this report includes ESPN betting analysis, Battery Power’s game preview, and Yahoo Sports’ live game thread. All data points regarding player statistics and betting lines are drawn from those published sources. The matchup is scheduled for August 20, 2026, at Guaranteed Rate Field.