On July 7th, Central European Time, the World Health Organization, based in Geneva, Switzerland, issued a warning: as another intense heatwave forms over the Atlantic, southwestern Europe could face even more lethal conditions in the coming weeks.
From now until July 22nd, a core high-temperature zone across Western and Southern Europe is expected to be trapped under a heat dome. Paris, France, will see temperatures climb to 36-37°C, with the first cooling rain not expected until the 17th. In Spain, Portugal, and Italy, temperatures will generally reach 35-37°C, with some areas in Spain potentially hitting 40°C.
According to a report from the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, Europe is warming twice as fast as the global average, making it the fastest-warming continent on Earth. The extreme heat will particularly impact vulnerable groups like the elderly and children. Over the past four years, more than 200,000 people in Europe have died from heat-related causes, with most of these deaths being preventable.
In the recently concluded month of June, a developing strong El Niño event, through a chain reaction in the North Atlantic, helped push a high-pressure system—also known as a “heat dome”—towards Europe. This system acted like a lid over France, trapping hot, sinking air near the ground.
Nearly all of Europe was enveloped by the extreme heatwave. Countries like France, the UK, Germany, and Spain experienced record-breaking temperatures for the period, resulting in over 2,000 excess deaths in France alone. The persistent high temperatures in the coming weeks will further boost demand for cooling appliances like air conditioners, adding pressure to regional electricity supplies.
Summer in Europe typically lasts until the end of August, and some areas can still see temperatures above 30°C in September. Last year, after entering August, countries like Spain, Portugal, France, Italy, Greece, Croatia, and Bulgaria continued to suffer from intense heatwaves, with maximum temperatures exceeding 40°C in many places. French nuclear power plants even had to reduce output due to the heat.
The overall penetration rate of air conditioning in Europe is only about 20%, making the problem especially acute in the developed countries mentioned above. Against this backdrop, China’s AC exports to Europe surged by a staggering 72.8% year-on-year in June. Orders for leading home appliance brands are already tight, wall-mounted AC units are sold out, and mobile ACs are completely out of stock in European channels. In some cases, the resale price of used units has even exceeded their original retail price.
Jia Fei, a student in Munich, Germany, shared their experience. They said this year feels noticeably hotter in Europe, making the contradictions more apparent. The German government has strict regulations on building exteriors, preventing ordinary residents from installing AC units without permission. Many people seek refuge in air-conditioned places like malls, subways, and cafes, or even jump into the water to swim. Schools can only rely on indoor fans. On hot nights, people use wet towels on their faces or get up for a cool shower to get back to sleep.
Jia Fei added that Europeans have a strong sense of environmental awareness. Even when they sometimes complain about the government, they often prioritize environmental issues.
The strain is also evident on the power supply side, with electricity demand for AC usage in major European cities spiking exponentially. In late June, electricity prices in several countries hit new records. Germany’s peak evening electricity price broke through 700 euros per megawatt-hour. In southern France, nuclear power plants were forced to limit cooling water discharge because river water temperatures were too high, leading to reduced output from several units.
Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of heatwaves and droughts in parts of Europe, making the region more susceptible to wildfires.Spain, located at a low latitude, is experiencing one of its most destructive fire seasons in decades. Last summer, Spain recorded at least 2,635 heat-related deaths nationwide. In the southern region of Andalusia alone, 36 cases of heat-related deaths have been reported.
Some analysts point out that this highlights the speed and unpredictability of changing climate patterns. People can no longer accurately predict where the next extreme weather event will strike.
Unfortunately, this might just be the beginning. The World Meteorological Organization, in a report released earlier this month, stated that El Niño conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific and are expected to strengthen rapidly in the coming months, leading to extreme weather events like heatwaves, droughts, and heavy rainfall in many parts of the world.
The organization predicts that the El Niño phenomenon will develop into a strong event between July and September. Multi-model ensemble forecasts indicate that sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific will rise significantly. The El Niño is expected to continue strengthening during the Northern Hemisphere autumn, with its impacts spreading to multiple regions around the globe.
