Signs of easing tensions in the Middle East are emerging. Over the past 24 hours, the US and Iran have had extensive communication.
On May 6, local time, US President Trump expressed optimism about reaching a framework agreement with Iran, believing it could yield results. He predicted that a framework agreement could be reached next week. The agreement may include Iran shipping its highly enriched uranium to the US.
According to CCTV News, Trump also stated that Iran would commit to not operating underground nuclear facilities and would “abide by this arrangement in good faith for a considerable period.” Iran currently has over 400 kilograms of near-weapon-grade uranium stockpiles.
Iran has been developing nuclear energy since the 1950s. After the US and Iran severed ties in 1980, the US has long accused Iran’s nuclear program of secretly developing nuclear weapons and imposed sanctions. Iran has repeatedly stated that its nuclear activities are for peaceful purposes.
It is reported that the comprehensive agreement will also end the US and Iran’s confrontation and blockade in the Strait, lift US sanctions, and unfreeze Iran’s frozen funds.
Additionally, at least four informed sources revealed that the White House believes that reaching a one-page memorandum of understanding with Iran could set the framework for more detailed nuclear negotiations.
As a key mediator, a Pakistani authority stated that the US and Iran’s negotiations through Pakistan seem to have shown promise and may yield tangible results.
According to informed sources, the US proposal contains some unacceptable terms, but did not specify which ones. The US negotiations are led by Trump’s envoy Witkoff and his son-in-law Kushner. If both parties reach a preliminary agreement, a 30-day detailed negotiation will be launched to reach a comprehensive agreement.
Iran is expected to submit its response to the US proposal to the mediator on May 7. Sources said that Iran has been reviewing the US proposal, and both sides are making progress toward reaching an agreement to end the war.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson told CNBC that Iran is “evaluating” the US-proposed 14-point ceasefire memorandum. The main content includes ensuring no further military aggression, paying compensation, and establishing a new management mechanism for the Strait of Hormuz.
The proposal consists of three stages. The first stage includes “transforming the ceasefire into a comprehensive ceasefire within 30 days,” “determining the principles for building an international mechanism to ensure the war does not resume,” “achieving a ceasefire in all areas and both parties committing not to disrupt the ceasefire, including Iran’s regional allies and Israel,” “gradually lifting the blockade on Iranian ports in a way that corresponds to the gradual opening of the Strait of Hormuz,” “Iran taking responsibility for clearing mines,” “revising Iran’s previous compensation proposals,” and “the US withdrawing from the waters surrounding Iran and stopping new troop deployments.”
The second stage includes “discussing a comprehensive halt to uranium enrichment within a 15-year timeframe” and “Iran resuming uranium enrichment activities according to the zero-stockpile principle after the expiration of the specified period.” The proposal also opposes dismantling or destroying Iran’s nuclear facilities and proposes transferring or diluting the highly enriched uranium stockpiles.
Furthermore, the proposal involves gradually lifting economic sanctions on Iran.
In the third stage, Iran will engage in strategic talks with regional countries to discuss building a security system covering the entire region.
Iran has also sent signals of easing tensions. President Parezhi Zhiyan stated on May 5 that rational dialogue is still possible. He said during a phone call with Iraq’s designated Prime Minister Zaidi that using threats and pressure to advance negotiations will not yield results. Parezhi Zhiyan hopes that Iraq will persuade the US to stop using military threats during the negotiation process.
Just a day after the launch, Trump announced the suspension of the “Free Plan” action (the US military assisting ships in crossing the Strait of Hormuz), citing progress in reaching a comprehensive agreement with Iran.
Analysts point out that this shows Trump’s eagerness to end the stalemate and start more important diplomatic agendas. However, the statements of other high-ranking US officials, including those from the State Department and the military, differ from Trump’s. The possibility of the conflict reigniting remains.
The easing of US-Iran tensions has sent ripples through global capital markets. As of the time of this article, the Nikkei 225 index has surpassed 62,000 points, rising 4.2% intraday, with SoftBank Group’s stock price surging 12.3%. The Korean KOSPI index once rose nearly 2%. The previous day, US, European, and Asian Pacific stock markets rebounded. Led by the surge in tech stocks such as SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics, the Korean KOSPI index once skyrocketed over 7% during the day.
The US-Iran conflict has brought high uncertainty to the global economy and stability. The butterfly effect of the Middle East conflict is spreading to various fields, including energy supply, transportation, prices, and food security. As former US Ambassador to NATO Ivo Daalder said, the Iran war has shaken economic security and world order, and the consequences will be felt in every country in the coming years.
Within Iran, despite the rare unity shown by the administrative system, the conservative religious system, and the military, the scenario Trump had hoped for has not materialized. He had expected the reformists within the Iranian system to seize the opportunity to gain the upper hand or for other armed forces to rise up.
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