After a long back-and-forth, Iran and the United States have finally reached a consensus on a 14-point ceasefire memorandum of understanding.
On the early morning of June 15 local time, Iran’s Supreme National Security Council and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs separately confirmed that the text of the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding (the Iran-US MOU) has been finalized and will be formally signed in Switzerland this Friday, June 19.
Following the announcement, Brent crude oil futures opened 2.8% lower, and WTI crude oil futures dropped over 4%. The S&P 500 futures opened 0.7% higher, and the Nasdaq 100 futures rose 1.1%. Spot gold opened over 1% higher.
Given the US’s poor track record in previous negotiations and Israel’s repeated attempts to derail the process, Iran remains highly cautious about the US’s ability and willingness to fulfill its commitments. Tehran has pushed for a phased implementation and strict enforcement mechanisms to prevent any breach.
Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi stated that two things will happen immediately from this morning: first, a permanent and immediate end to hostilities on all fronts, including in Lebanon; second, the US will lift and terminate its naval blockade against Iran. Iran’s own commitments will take effect after the formal signing this Friday.
Gharibabadi added that after the ceasefire, the lifting of the US naval blockade, and the release of Iran’s frozen assets, the two sides will enter a 60-day negotiation period to finalize a comprehensive agreement. If the other side breaches the deal, Iran will take countermeasures, noting that the Iranian armed forces “still have their fingers on the trigger.”
During the 60-day final negotiation period, the two sides will discuss the nuclear issue, the lifting of US sanctions on Iran, the reconstruction of Iran’s economy, and verification mechanisms for each party’s commitments. A statement regarding the agreement with the US will soon be released by Iran’s Supreme National Security Council. At that time, the Iranian public will be able to see what Iran has achieved and promised, with Tehran claiming its gains far outweigh its concessions.
Iran’s Mehr News Agency has also released more details of the draft: Iran will suspend sanctions on its oil and petrochemical product sales, requiring an immediate and permanent end to hostilities on all fronts, including Lebanon. However, Iran’s missile program and support for “resistance forces” have not been included in the final negotiations.
The US and its allies must propose a reconstruction plan for Iran worth at least $300 billion, and release $24 billion in frozen Iranian assets during the negotiations. Before the final talks begin, half of the $24 billion in frozen Iranian funds must be unfrozen. The final negotiations will not start until half of the frozen assets are released, oil sanctions are waived, and the naval blockade is lifted.
US President Trump wrote on social media that with the signing of the US-Iran agreement on the 19th, the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened free of charge for 60 days to allow for mine clearance operations.
He also emphasized that the agreement was reached despite opposition from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. If a nuclear deal cannot be achieved, the US will resume strikes against Iran.
Due to growing fundamental differences in strategic direction, the alliance between the US and Israeli leaders has shifted from a close bond to an open rift. Trump’s dissatisfaction with Netanyahu has reached a peak.
Separately, on the afternoon of June 14 local time, the Iranian national football team arrived in Los Angeles, California, to prepare for their first World Cup group match tomorrow morning.
On June 13, Iranian officials announced the funeral arrangements for the late Supreme Leader Khamenei: a phased ceremony will be held in Tehran, Qom, and Mashhad starting July 4. These developments further confirm that tensions between the US and Iran are easing. Khamenei was killed in a US-Israeli “decapitation” strike on the morning of February 28 this year.
Regarding the latest developments in the Middle East, leaders of the UK, France, Germany, and Italy issued a joint statement “warmly welcoming” the deal. They emphasized that Iran must never acquire nuclear weapons, ensured unconditional and unrestricted freedom of navigation, and reiterated full support for Lebanon’s stability, sovereignty, and territorial integrity.
