94Ha ViewpointThe Strait of Hormuz is indeed Iran’s strategic bargaining chip with important deterrence in international games, but its actual feasibility and consequences as a “trump card” have significant limitations:
🔥 1. Key strategic value
Global energy throat: The Strait is the only sea route for the transportation of Persian Gulf oil to the world. It carries about one-third of the world’s seaborne crude oil trade and 20% of liquefied natural gas trade, directly affecting international energy supply and oil price stability. Iran has the potential for blockade due to its geographical location (controlling the northern shore of the Strait and major islands).
Rapid economic impact capability: After Iran threatened to blockade, international oil prices rose by 7% in a single day, and the market is highly sensitive; if it is actually blocked, oil prices may soar by more than 30% in the short term, triggering a global inflation crisis.
⚖️ 2. Actual blockade faces multiple constraints
Political and diplomatic risks: The blockade will simultaneously damage the interests of major energy importing countries such as China, Japan, South Korea, and Europe, and even affect Middle Eastern allies (such as Qatar and the UAE), leading to a reversal of international public opinion and isolating Iran.
Limited military feasibility:
Technical level: Iran has mines, missile boat swarm tactics, anti-ship missiles and drones to harass the waterway, but the narrowest part is 33 kilometers wide, and it is difficult to completely block it; the countermeasures of the US Fifth Fleet and its allies (such as anti-missile systems and drone hunting) constitute a significant deterrent.
Severity of consequences: It may trigger direct US military intervention. Historical cases (such as the US military’s “Operation Praying Mantis” in 1988 to destroy Iran’s naval forces) warn of high risks.
Economic backlash: Iran itself relies on the Strait to export oil (oil revenue accounts for 35% of the government budget), and a comprehensive blockade is equivalent to cutting off its own financial resources.
🎯 3. Iran’s game strategy: deterrence is greater than action
Historical model: Multiple threats of blockade (Iraq War, US sanctions in 2017), but none of them were actually implemented. This parliamentary proposal has not yet been transformed into an action order from the highest decision-making level.
“Controllable pressure” is more likely: Experts believe that Iran is more likely to use limited harassment (such as attacking ships and laying mines in some waterways) to create shipping risks and panic, rather than completely cutting off the waterway, in order to balance the deterrent effect and cost.
Positioning of the ultimate means: Iranian officials have repeatedly hinted that the blockade is the “last option” and will only be used when core interests (such as nuclear facilities) are under fatal threats.
The Strait of Hormuz is an important strategic deterrent tool for Iran, which can cause an instantaneous impact on the global economy and has the potential power of a “trump card”. However, its use is subject to severe international countermeasures, military risks and economic self-damage, and the possibility of actual implementation is low. Iran uses threats to create psychological and market pressure, using the Strait as a bargaining chip rather than an ultimate weapon that can be easily used.
