Even though the US and Iran have signed and activated a phased peace framework, the next round of talks in Switzerland is off to a bumpy start. Tehran is talking tough, and Israel keeps throwing wrenches in the works.
According to reports on June 18 local time, Iran’s Supreme Leader, Mujtaba Khamenei, issued a statement saying he has reservations about the US-Iran memorandum of understanding in principle. But he gave it the green light based on President Pezeshkian, in his role as head of the Supreme National Security Council, representing himself and all council members, promising to protect Iran’s national and resistance front rights and taking clear responsibility.
The next day, Iran’s Parliament Speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, wrote to Mujtaba saying that even after signing the memorandum, Iran will stick to its set conditions and red lines. If the enemy tries to overstep, Iran will strike back without hesitation.
Because Israel keeps hammering southern Lebanon, the Iranian negotiation team that was set to head to Switzerland has decided to delay its trip. Iran had already told the US and mediators that Lebanon is still a core part of the US-Iran talks, and it could directly make or break the negotiations.
Iran warns that Israeli forces have pushed about 10 kilometers into Lebanon, keeping up military ops and attacks, which it says violates the first clause of the memorandum.
The US and Israel were once tight allies, but as their joint war on Iran didn’t hit the original goals, things are getting more complicated between them.
Officials from all political stripes in Israel, including some of Prime Minister Netanyahu’s allies, have been criticizing the US-Iran memorandum. They think it ignores Israel’s worries about Iran’s nuclear and missile programs, and it could tie Israel’s hands in its military actions against Hezbollah in Lebanon.
In their view, Israel is dead set on keeping troops in southern Lebanon and won’t bow to US pressure, including continuing to station forces south of the Litani River.
Over at the White House, officials say logistics and technical details haven’t been ironed out yet, so Vice President Vance didn’t leave for Switzerland as planned on the evening of June 18.
Vance himself said at a White House press conference that the 60-day deadline for a final deal, as laid out in the memorandum, starts counting from June 18, and talks should kick off this weekend.
He also stressed that the US believes the Strait of Hormuz, as an international waterway, shouldn’t have tolls. But according to Ghalibaf and Iran’s Foreign Ministry, they won’t charge ships during the 60-day talks, but Iran has basically worked out a management system for the Strait of Hormuz with Oman. In the future, they’ll charge for services provided there, and they’re drafting the rules now.
When asked who’s going to pay the $300 billion for Iran’s reconstruction and economic development mentioned in the memorandum, Vance said the talks are too early to give a clear answer.
On the pushback from Israel, Vance said it’s frustrating Trump, and he accused Israel of not trusting the US enough. He warned that Israel, with only 9 million people, can’t just rely on killing to solve all its national security problems.
Netanyahu had bet that joint US action would topple Iran’s theocratic regime and boost his standing before Israeli elections.But in reality, the rift between him and Trump is widening, and Israel is sticking to its military campaign in Lebanon.
Even when Trump launched military action against Iran back in late February, he faced questions at home. On March 17, the head of the US National Counterterrorism Center, Joe Kent, said he couldn’t support the war in Iran in good conscience and resigned. He believed the Trump administration was pushed into the war by Israel and its powerful lobbying groups.
Jews make up just2.4% of the US population, but they hold a lot of weight in key areas like politics, economics, and foreign policy. The US has long been Israel’s biggest and most crucial backer, giving over $300 billion in total aid to date. At the same time, the US sees Israel as the core of its Middle East strategy to keep its influence there.
Israel has always seen Iran and its allies as an existential threat and is determined to dismantle Iran’s nuclear capabilities. Netanyahu, over several terms, kept pushing US administrations to attack Iran, and finally got his wish under Trump.
Trump’s initial reason for the war was that fresh intel showed Iran was at its “most vulnerable” point in history, and striking then would benefit US interests. But what was sold as a quick operation turned into a brutal war of attrition.
The US-Israel war on Iran didn’t bring the expected regime change. Instead, it led to Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz, spiking global energy prices, and piling pressure on the US at home. US intelligence believes the Iranian regime has held up, backed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and is even tougher now, with no chance of being toppled.
As strategic rifts grow, the alliance between Trump and Netanyahu has gone from tight to openly fractured. On June 8, Trump said he warned Netanyahu that if Israel kept fighting Iran, it could end up isolated. He also reportedly ripped into Netanyahu on a call, calling him “crazy” and accusing him of being ungrateful for helping him avoid jail in a corruption case.
