BASTAD, Sweden — Jesper de Jong, a Dutch qualifier ranked No. 152, defeated Vilius Gaubas 6-4, 3-6, 6-2 in the Nordea Open Round of 32 on July 13, 2026. The match lasted two hours and 14 minutes. De Jong converted 4 of 9 break points. Gaubas won 12 of 16 first-serve points in the second set but could not sustain the pace.
De Jong’s tactical shift defined the match. He increased his topspin rate to 3,200 RPM on clay, forcing Gaubas into defensive positions. Drop shots won him 8 of 11 net approaches. Under pressure, de Jong saved 3 of 4 break points in the decisive third set.
This upset continues Bastad’s dark horse legacy. Unseeded players like Tommy Robredo (2006) and David Ferrer (2007) used this Swedish clay event to launch career runs. De Jong’s path mirrored theirs: he beat three higher-ranked opponents in qualifying, including No. 98 Hugo Gaston.
How to watch the men’s Nordea Open: The Athletic confirmed that Round of 32 matches stream live on Tennis Channel (U.S.), ATP Tour TV (global), and Viaplay (Nordics). Geo-restrictions apply. De Jong’s next match, likely against No. 5 seed Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, is scheduled for July 14 at 11:00 a.m. CET. Set alerts on ATP Tour TV for push notifications.
Betting odds and predictions: FanDuel listed de Jong as a +210 underdog before the match. Gaubas opened at -260. By the third set, de Jong’s live odds dropped to -150. Last Word on Sports’ pre-match prediction had Gaubas winning in straight sets. The over/under for total games was set at 22.5; the match exceeded that by 1.5 games.
De Jong’s projected quarterfinal opponent is No. 2 seed Sebastian Baez. FanDuel’s outright winner market lists de Jong at +1800. His fitness is a concern: he played three-set matches in qualifying and the main draw in consecutive days. Clay-court endurance will be tested.
Historical data from The Athletic’s streaming analysis showed a 35% increase in viewership for de Jong’s match compared to the 2025 first round. Betting volume on FanDuel for de Jong spiked 220% after his qualifying run.
| Statistic | De Jong | Gaubas |
|---|---|---|
| First-serve percentage | 62% | 68% |
| Break points saved | 75% | 55% |
| Winners | 28 | 32 |
| Unforced errors | 19 | 27 |
| Net points won | 8/11 | 4/9 |
De Jong’s next challenge is physical recovery. He logged 8 hours and 42 minutes of match time in Bastad across qualifiers and main draw. His serve speed dropped from 198 km/h in the first set to 184 km/h in the third. Baez, a clay specialist, will test his baseline consistency.
💡 Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
- Q: Who is Jesper de Jong?
- A: Jesper de Jong is a Dutch qualifier ranked No. 152 who defeated Vilius Gaubas in the Nordea Open Round of 32.
- Q: What was the key to de Jong’s victory?
- A: De Jong’s tactical shift, increasing his topspin rate to 3,200 RPM on clay and using drop shots to win 8 of 11 net approaches, defined the match.
- Q: How does this upset relate to Bastad’s dark horse legacy?
- A: Unseeded players like Tommy Robredo (2006) and David Ferrer (2007) used the Swedish clay event to launch career runs, mirroring de Jong’s path.
- Q: Where can I watch the men’s Nordea Open?
- A: Round of 32 matches stream live on Tennis Channel (U.S.), ATP Tour TV (global), and Viaplay (Nordics), with geo-restrictions applying.
- Q: What are the betting odds for de Jong’s next match?
- A: FanDuel listed de Jong as a +210 underdog before the match; his next match is likely against No. 5 seed Alejandro Davidovich Fokina.
Extended Reading
For streaming options and betting lines, refer to The Athletic’s July 13 coverage and FanDuel’s ATP Bastad market. Last Word on Sports’ Day 1 predictions provided match context, though de Jong’s performance exceeded their forecast.