ST. PETERSBURG, July 13 (Reuters) — Junior Caminero will attempt to dethrone two-time Home Run Derby champion Kyle Schwarber in 2026. The Tampa Bay Rays third baseman finished second to Seattle’s Cal Raleigh in the 2025 derby. He is now focused on redemption.
“I want to go one step further,” Caminero said during All-Star Game Media Day, per MLB.com footage. The 22-year-old’s confidence is backed by data.
Caminero’s 2026 metrics show a 54% barrel rate and average exit velocity of 112.4 mph, per Statcast. He improved his plate discipline, reducing chase rate to 18.3% from 22.1% in 2025. Yahoo Sports predicts an upset, citing his “youthful stamina and ability to adjust mid-round.”
Schwarber, 33, enters the derby amid a season slump. The Philadelphia Phillies slugger is hitting .224 with a .318 slugging percentage, down from his career norms. His derby reliance on fastballs—83% of his 2025 swings—leaves him vulnerable.
Caminero’s 2025 derby performance revealed strengths and weaknesses. He hit 28 home runs in the first round but faded in the final, managing 12. “Fatigue and pitch selection hurt me,” Caminero admitted. He then trained for endurance, adding sprint drills and timing exercises, per the Tampa Bay Times.
The 2026 derby format features timed rounds with bonus time for distance. Caminero plans to target the short porch in right field, using his opposite-field power. He demonstrated this during the Futures Game warm-up, facing pitchers Jake Fraley and Nathan Flewelling, per the Times.
| Metric | Caminero (2026) | Schwarber (2026) |
|---|---|---|
| Barrel Rate | 54% | 39% |
| Avg Exit Velo | 112.4 mph | 108.1 mph |
| Chase Rate | 18.3% | 26.7% |
| Home Runs (Derby) | 28 (1st round, ’25) | N/A (slump) |
A win would elevate Caminero’s career trajectory and franchise relevance. The Rays, a small-market team, would gain national attention. Fan reactions at Media Day were enthusiastic, with chants of “Caminero!” echoing.
Prediction: Caminero upsets Schwarber in the final round, 34-27. Watch the derby Monday. Track his redemption story.
💡 Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
- Q: What is Junior Caminero’s key strategy for the 2026 Home Run Derby?
- A: Caminero plans to target the short porch in right field using his opposite-field power, leveraging his improved plate discipline and endurance training to overcome past fatigue issues.
- Q: How does Kyle Schwarber’s 2026 performance compare to his career norms?
- A: Schwarber enters the derby in a slump, hitting .224 with a .318 slugging percentage, down from career norms, and relies heavily on fastballs (83% of swings), making him vulnerable.
- Q: What improvements has Caminero made since his 2025 derby loss?
- A: Caminero reduced his chase rate from 22.1% to 18.3%, added sprint drills and timing exercises for endurance, and focuses on adjusting mid-round to avoid fading in the final.
Extended Reading
Sources: Tampa Bay Times (“Rays’ Junior Caminero eyeing Home Run Derby redemption,” July 12, 2026); Yahoo Sports (“Why Junior Caminero will upset Kyle Schwarber,” July 13, 2026); MLB.com (ASG Media Day video, July 13, 2026).