As the NATO summit kicks off in Ankara, Turkey, from July 7 to 8, European leaders are under pressure to convince a skeptical President Trump that they’re finally stepping up. According to The National, the main topics on the table are defense spending, the Russia-Ukraine war, and the U.S.-Iran conflict—all while dealing with a “furious” American president. Since taking office, Trump has repeatedly slammed NATO, calling the U.S. relationship with the alliance “absurd” and announcing troop withdrawals from Europe. Analysts warn this could make the summit a rocky affair.
Europe’s Big Push to Show Trump It’s Keeping Its Word
Leaders from all 32 NATO member states, including Trump, are expected to attend. Reuters reports that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, South Korean President Lee Jae-myung, European Council President António Costa, and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen are likely to join a dinner with NATO leaders on the evening of July 7. During the summit, NATO members will focus on progress in increasing defense spending, boosting military industrial production, and shifting the defense “burden” from the U.S. to Europe.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen arrives in Ankara on July 6.
The U.S. has been pushing Europe to invest more in defense and take on the primary responsibility for continental security. Reuters notes that European NATO members will tell Trump they are fulfilling promises made at last year’s NATO summit in The Hague to spend 5% of their GDP on defense and related areas by 2035. A draft summit declaration reportedly states: “In 2025, European allies and Canada will increase core defense investments by more than $139 billion.”
Will Flattery Work This Time? Probably Not.
Despite Europe’s assurances, the U.S. stance remains unclear. The Associated Press says that while last year’s summit resolved initial financial disputes, “the rules keep changing.” Trump hasn’t budged, expressing frustration that some NATO allies refused to help in the U.S.-Iran conflict. “We don’t need their money—we don’t need anything,” Trump said. “I just need loyalty.” He even hinted he wouldn’t attend this summit if it weren’t organized by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
NATO has tried flattery to win Trump over. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte’s recent carefully orchestrated lobbying in the Oval Office highlighted this, as he credited Trump for the increase in European and Canadian defense spending, trying to explain that European allies didn’t abandon the U.S. during the Iran conflict.
“Flattery worked last year, but now there’s a new challenge,” the AP commented. Trump now wants more, and his demand for “loyalty” is hard to measure with charts. Meanwhile, The Guardian reports that U.S. Permanent Representative to NATO Matthew Whitaker recently said some member states aren’t moving fast enough on defense spending increases.
Just before the summit, thousands of protesters took to the streets in Istanbul, Ankara, and Izmir over the weekend to protest NATO’s push for higher defense spending. They held signs reading: “NATO wants war, workers want peace,” “Budgets should serve the people, not NATO,” and “No to NATO, no to war.”
Expect Discussions on Iran and Ukraine
The National notes that the summit will address the U.S.-Iran and Russia-Ukraine conflicts. Member states are expected to offer “supportive measures” to Trump regarding the former, including pledges to conduct mine-clearing operations and provide naval escorts in the Strait of Hormuz. In the summit declaration, NATO leaders are likely to reiterate that Iran must never acquire nuclear weapons and call for full respect of freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.
On the Russia-Ukraine front, NATO members are expected to reaffirm support for Ukraine and promise further aid. Leaders are likely to commit to providing Ukraine with €70 billion worth of military equipment, assistance, and training in 2026, maintaining at least the same level of support in 2027.
According to AFP, Zelensky posted on Facebook on July 6: “It is crucial that the world—first and foremost the United States and our European partners—make strong decisions at the Ankara NATO summit to support our air defense.” The report also said Russia launched a strike on Kyiv early that morning, killing at least 11 people and injuring dozens. CNN notes that the deadly attacks on Kyiv over the past week show that as Russia innovates its tactics and intensifies its assaults, Ukraine faces a severe challenge in protecting its capital.
The Guardian reports that senior U.S. officials say Trump will meet with Zelensky during the summit to push for an end to the Russia-Ukraine war. One official added: “Over the past few months, the battlefield situation has clearly reached a stalemate, with neither side making much progress. The president feels strongly that this war must end as soon as possible.”
