Top climate authorities and scientists have sounded the alarm: the intensifying El Niño in the Pacific, combined with human-driven warming, is already sparking extreme weather across the globe.
As reported by HA Viewpoint , climate scientist Zeke Hausfather from the non-profit research group “Berkeley Earth” in California, USA, explains that this El Niño event is on track to be the strongest in 150 years.
Under the combined influence of these two factors, the global average temperature in 2027 is likely to rise 1.7°C above pre-industrial levels, breaking the 1.5°C warming threshold that countries pledged to avoid under the Paris Agreement.
El Niño is a climate phenomenon where the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean warms unusually. It’s the opposite of La Niña, happens every 2 to 7 years, and typically lasts 9 to 12 months. It disrupts global atmospheric circulation, causing weird weather in different regions and seriously impacting agriculture, ecosystems, and people’s lives worldwide.
Earlier this month, the World Meteorological Organization released a report predicting that multi-model ensemble forecasts show sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific will rise significantly, with El Niño expected to strengthen further during the Northern Hemisphere fall.
And it’s not just the summer-stricken Northern Hemisphere feeling the heat. As the current El Niño continues to develop and could trigger heavy rains and major disasters, several areas in Peru, located in the Southern Hemisphere, have declared a 60-day state of emergency. Normally dry desert regions are facing relentless downpours, raising the risk of urban flooding and landslides.
Earlier this month, China’s National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, based on comprehensive ocean monitoring, atmospheric circulation, and multi-model predictions, also concluded that a super strong El Niño event will form this autumn and winter, potentially breaking historical records. Over the past few decades, only events around 1980, 1997, and 2015 have been similar in intensity. The warming in the coming months also makes it highly likely that 2026 will become the hottest year on record.
Monitoring shows that from January to May this year, the average monthly sea surface temperature in China’s coastal waters was 0.52°C higher than the 1991-2020 average for the same period, threatening marine ecology—especially the safety of aquaculture. Since early July, due to the westward and northward extension of the subtropical high, average temperatures across most of China have been 0.5-1°C higher than normal for this time of year.
El Niño will also make typhoons in the Northwest Pacific and South China Sea stronger, carrying more moisture when they make landfall. This easily combines with the monsoon system to trigger extreme heavy rainfall. This year, much of China is expected to experience a warm winter, with a significantly higher chance of extreme temperature swings and a high risk of severe flooding, putting serious pressure on flood control efforts.
Furthermore, El Niño will severely impact regions dependent on hydropower. According to estimates from the National Energy Administration, every 1°C rise in average temperature could increase electricity demand by 40-50 million kilowatts. As El Niño develops, if some areas face extreme heatwaves, power load flexibility could increase further, potentially worsening the supply-demand gap during peak summer periods.
In terms of public health, El Niño indirectly increases the risk of many infectious diseases by altering rainfall and temperature. Research based on the World Health Organization’s Global Influenza Program database found that during El Niño events, large-scale flu outbreaks increase. Abnormal winter temperature fluctuations can also lead to more severe flu outbreaks the following year.
Melting glaciers and permafrost are also releasing ancient pathogens. Back in 2014, a giant virus 1.5 microns in diameter was discovered in Siberia. Later, scientists found another giant virus in a melted ice lake in the Milne Fiord Epishelf Lake in the Canadian Arctic.
Global warming is extending the transmission season for diseases that normally peak in summer. Tropical intestinal infections, vector-borne diseases, and parasitic diseases are gradually spreading to temperate and even colder regions.
On July 22, a report from French Public Health said that during the heatwave that swept France from June 17 to July 2, at least 5,764 excess deaths from all causes were recorded—36% higher than expected. Excess mortality refers to the difference between the estimated total deaths in a specific place and time and the estimated deaths without a health crisis.