The Texas GOP just wrapped up a brutal, expensive Senate runoff that felt like a clash between two very different Americas.
On one side: John Cornyn, 74. Law school, state courts, the Bush era, corporate backing, and years in DC. His path reads like a textbook old-school Republican establishment resume — journalism degree, law degree, state Supreme Court, attorney general, U.S. Senator. For over two decades, he’s been the party’s go-to gatekeeper in Texas: if national Republicans wanted access to deep-pocketed donors here, they had to go through him.
Cornyn (Wiki)
On the other side: Ken Paxton, 63. Classic MAGA-era figure — perpetually entangled in legal trouble, combative, obsessed with the culture war, resurrected by Trump’s personal endorsement. With a psychology degree and an MBA, Paxton never fit the traditional DC conservative mold. He’s more like the Republican redefined by the Trump years: skeptical of institutions, fiercely loyal to the former president.
Paxton (Wiki)
Funny thing is, both men served as Texas Attorney General. But back in Cornyn’s day, the AG was still a “law officer.” Under Paxton, that office has morphed into a front line for the national right-wing culture war — immigration suits, election conspiracies, constant clashes with the feds. He’s basically turned the AG’s office into a MAGA outpost.
Cornyn’s biggest political asset used to be the old-school Texas GOP donor network — oil, real estate, energy titans. Paxton’s biggest asset? A single shout-out from Trump on Truth Social. Even their enemies aren’t the same anymore.
Their likely Democratic opponent, James Talarico, is almost from another America: Harvard grad school in education, former middle school teacher, still studying at a seminary. He talks religion and social justice, less like a traditional Texas Democrat and more like some “progressive Christian” relic from the Obama era.
So the election turned into a weird tableau: a Bush-era Republican, a Trump-era Republican, and a young teacher trying to redefine what a Democrat looks like in a red state — all fighting for the future of America’s biggest red state.
The runoff between John Cornyn and Ken Paxton ended Tuesday night with Paxton winning 60% of the vote. But this brutal primary has some Republicans worried the party will end up badly scarred.
With Trump’s endorsement, Paxton clearly became the frontrunner in the final days. The scandal-plagued, fire-breathing state AG survived a barrage of millions in attack ads. Cornyn — the establishment’s golden boy, a Senate heavyweight seeking a fifth term — fought hard with massive campaign funds and backing from top congressional leaders.
“In Spanish, they call it ‘lucha de gigantes’ — a battle of giants,” said Daniel Garza, head of the conservative Texas group LIBRE Institute, which stayed neutral. “After the runoff, you’re going to have to mend a lot of broken relationships.”
As the race wound down, it turned vicious. Cornyn called the AG morally unfit for office; Paxton shot back that Cornyn, at 74, was too old for the Senate. The back-and-forth mudslinging only deepened the existing rift between the GOP’s hardliners and its traditional moderates.
Multiple Texas and DC Republicans warned that Trump’s decision to back Paxton over Cornyn has already alienated some lawmakers on Capitol Hill and could sap the enthusiasm of crucial GOP mega-donors heading into the general election.
Waiting for the winner, Paxton, is state Rep. Talarico, a Democrat who’s already raised a ton of cash and polls strong against either Republican — especially Paxton.
At the national level, GOP insiders are increasingly nervous that if Paxton is the nominee, they’ll have to pour huge money into holding this seat, draining resources from other key swing-state battles.
Many national GOP donors — who already spent heavily on Cornyn — and establishment types are worried Paxton will drag down the party’s performance in other races. And they’re furious that the president personally backed a candidate they see as “morally repugnant and politically risky against a Democrat.”
“Everything nasty is gonna be true,” an anonymous Texas GOP state lawmaker who backed Cornyn told a news site. “He’s destroyed the trust there. No matter what we do for you, you’ll still stab us in the back. That’s what he did to Cornyn.”
Trump kept stoking the fire over the weekend before the vote, posting on X that Cornyn “was very disloyal to me,” while Paxton “will never let you down!” The White House didn’t respond to requests for comment.
“If you asked me if I’d want to be John Cornyn right now? Hell no,” said a Paxton campaign aide, dismissing personal attacks on the AG as “the same tired old DC playbook they used against Donald Trump in 2016 and 2024.”
The runoff result further cements the influence of Trump’s loyal base, who are determined to purge even the most conservative incumbents who aren’t sufficiently loyal.
Paxton’s victory is a stunning defeat for Cornyn, who’s held the seat since 2002. For years, many Republicans viewed him as Texas’s most powerful political figure and the crucial link between the state’s wealthy GOP donor class and Washington.
Campaigners from across the country used to fly to Texas to court those deep-pocketed businesspeople, who long respected and supported Cornyn. This cycle, they poured millions into his reelection bid.
“‘He’s the most beloved political figure among Texas’s donor class’ doesn’t even begin to describe it,” said a Washington GOP strategist close to Cornyn. “That’s why people are having such a hard time with this — he was seen as the door to every major donor in the state, and there’s no one else close.”
Some in the GOP donor class say if Paxton wins, Trump himself should foot the bill against the Democrat. The thinking goes: the president needs to tap into the $300 million war chest of MAGA Inc.
“Once Trump goes all-in on Paxton, the broader Republican ecosystem will expect Trump to cover the extra costs to push Paxton over the finish line,” said a GOP Senate strategist. “The expectation is that the president is on a winning streak and he knows how to win. But obviously, winning takes resources, and people expect him to use his own.”
The Republican National Committee downplayed concerns about a Talarico vs. Paxton matchup. RNC spokesperson Zach Kraft said in a statement: “Texas is Trump country, and Republicans will unite to demolish ‘Low T’ Talarico and his six genders. Any scared Republican suggesting a different outcome is just BS-ing to land a job at a liberal media outlet.”
A Cornyn campaign aide acknowledged that Trump’s endorsement boosted Paxton’s odds. After the endorsement, the campaign posted some “#stillwithcornyn” hashtags. The aide noted Cornyn had endorsements from many statewide groups, including powerful farm organizations, and still outspent Paxton on TV ads.
Before the vote, the aide still thought: “All these factors add up — two points here, three points there. That’s why we believe we still have a path to victory.”
He might have had reason for optimism. Cornyn is well-respected within the Senate GOP caucus and finished second in the race for majority leader in 2024.
But Cornyn’s problem was loyalty — or the lack of it. Trump called Cornyn “a good man” when endorsing Paxton but criticized him for “not supporting me in tough times.” Cornyn didn’t formally back Trump’s reelection until after the New Hampshire primary in 2024 — something Trump pointedly noted in that post.
Earlier this month, the Trump wing ousted Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy, who voted to convict Trump in the January 6 impeachment trial. Last week, they “took out” Rep. Thomas Massie, who became a target for defying Trump on the Epstein files, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, and war powers.
“In earlier election cycles, people compared ideology — who’s more conservative,” said the pro-Cornyn DC operative. “Trump changed the game. Now it’s about who’s closest to Trump.”
The last independent poll before the vote — by the University of Houston from late April to early May — showed the race neck-and-neck. Combined with continued donor support, that suggested many Republicans were tired of the purge politics and willing to defy the president.
But other signs showed Paxton pulling ahead even before Trump’s endorsement. A super PAC backing Paxton’s internal poll in early May gave him an 11-point lead. A gun safety group leaning Democratic also found Paxton up by 12 points.
In the end, another “pre-Trump era” conservative senator goes down — a political style that may no longer be viable in the post-Trump world.
But the bigger issue is the growing divide. Paxton, feeling his momentum, had already started looking toward November. Last Thursday, he said he’d pull all negative ads against Cornyn in the final days and focus on attacking Talarico instead. He invited Cornyn to do the same, “for the good of our party.”
Cornyn said no, and that day used some strong religious language: “We’ll keep telling the truth about Paxton. He’s avoided accountability for too long. Judgment Day is coming.”
If Paxton really faces a strong challenge from Democrat Talarico, if GOP donors sit on their hands waiting for Trump to pay, and if they then lose heart for the midterms — that might indeed be the beginning of the GOP’s “Judgment Day.”
