HONOLULU — Tropical Storm Moke is bearing down on Hawaii’s Big Island with over a foot of rain forecast. The storm arrives exactly one week after Hurricane Lala’s deadly flooding and landslides saturated the ground and crippled infrastructure. The combination threatens a catastrophic cascade.
Moke, upgraded from Tropical Depression Two-C on Friday, is moving west-northwest at 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds are 45 mph, with a central pressure of 1003 mb. The storm’s core is expected to brush the windward slopes of Hawaii Island and East Maui this weekend.
The forecast is stark. Rainfall totals of 10 to 15 inches are possible in isolated areas. Gusty winds up to 50 mph could accompany the downpours. Isolated thunderstorms are embedded within the bands.
The ground cannot absorb more water. Hurricane Lala dumped up to 20 inches of rain on the same slopes last weekend. At least four fatalities were confirmed. Mudslides severed Highway 11 near Hilo and isolated several communities.
“The soil is at full saturation,” said a National Weather Service hydrologist in Honolulu. “Any additional rainfall becomes runoff almost immediately.”
That runoff has nowhere to go. Drainage culverts on the Big Island’s Hamakua coast remain clogged with debris from Lala. Bridges weakened by scour may not withstand another surge. Power poles already leaning could topple.
The cascade scenario is concrete. Flash flooding in low-lying areas like Wainaku and Papaikou is likely within hours of heavy rain. Hillsides stripped of vegetation by Lala’s landslides face renewed failure. A single mudslide could block Saddle Road, the only alternative route between Hilo and Kona.
Emergency managers are not waiting. Hawaii County has opened shelters in Hilo, Pahoa, and Waimea. Preemptive evacuation notices were issued for several stream-adjacent neighborhoods Friday evening. Schools in windward districts will be closed Monday.
Utility crews are pre-positioned. Hawaiian Electric has staged crews in Hilo and Kahului. The American Red Cross has stockpiled cots and water at distribution points. Sandbags are being distributed free at county fire stations.
This is not Hawaii’s first encounter with sequential storms. Hurricane Lane in 2018 produced 58 inches of rain on the Big Island. Tropical Storm Olivia, just weeks later, triggered landslides that damaged over 100 homes in Maui’s North Shore.
Climate data suggests these back-to-back events are becoming more common. Sea surface temperatures around Hawaii are running 2-3 degrees Fahrenheit above the 30-year average in August. Warmer water fuels stronger storms and extends the season.
The public is being urged to monitor alerts. The National Weather Service has issued a Flash Flood Watch through Monday evening. A High Surf Advisory is in effect for east-facing shores. Residents should sign up for county emergency alerts via text or email.
The response plan is straightforward. Know your evacuation route. Have a go-bag with medications, documents, and three days of water. Check on elderly neighbors, particularly those in shoreline and hillside homes.
The storm will test Hawaii’s resilience again. The infrastructure is damaged. The ground is saturated. The forecast is unforgiving. Preparedness, not luck, will determine the outcome.
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💡 Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
- Q: What is Tropical Storm Moke and where is it headed?
- A: Tropical Storm Moke is a storm upgraded from Tropical Depression Two-C, moving west-northwest at 12 mph with maximum winds of 45 mph. It is expected to brush the windward slopes of Hawaii Island and East Maui this weekend, bringing 10 to 15 inches of rain.
- Q: How does Moke interact with the aftermath of Hurricane Lala?
- A: Hurricane Lala dumped up to 20 inches of rain last week, saturating the soil and causing deadly flooding and mudslides. The ground cannot absorb more water, so any additional rainfall from Moke becomes runoff immediately, increasing flood and landslide risks.
- Q: What are the specific threats from Moke?
- A: The main threats include flash flooding in low-lying areas like Wainaku and Papaikou, mudslides on saturated slopes, and infrastructure failures due to clogged culverts, weakened bridges, and leaning power poles from Lala’s damage.
Extended Reading
For real-time tracking and localized updates, consult the following sources cited in this report:
| Source | Coverage Focus | Update Frequency |
|---|---|---|
| Hawaii News Now (First Alert Weather) | Local radar, evacuation orders, school closures | Continuous |
| USA TODAY Weather Section | Storm track forecasts, national impact analysis | Every 3 hours |
| The Weather Channel | Moke’s position, rainfall estimates, satellite loops | Hourly |
| NOAA National Hurricane Center | Official advisories, wind speed probabilities | Every 6 hours (or as needed) |