As the U.S. remains mired in the conflict in Iran,President Trump, recognizing that economic blockade might be more effective, has set aside plans for a large-scale military operation.
On August 19, in a post on his social media platform “Truth Social,” Trump stated that Iran had failed to seize the opportunity for a deal, prompting him to announce the “most severe economic action” ever implemented against any country. He described it as an unprecedented “economic war and economic isolation.”
According to his statement, any nation allowing its financial institutions, businesses, airports, or government entities to support Iran will face “enormous economic consequences.” He demanded an immediate halt to oil smuggling, currency swaps, cash transfers, vessel registration, and the use of shell companies, while urging allies to join forces in isolating Iran.
Earlier this month, in an interview, Trump claimed the U.S. was only engaged in “semi-negotiations” with Iran. He noted that Iran is grappling with severe inflation and a shortage of funds, even struggling to cover military expenses, and that the U.S. naval blockade has further exacerbated Iran’s economic crisis.
It is anticipated that the U.S. plan may include restarting and intensifying secondary oil sanctions, imposing indiscriminate sanctions on any third-party entities purchasing Iranian crude, and freezing all their assets within U.S. jurisdiction.
Currently, U.S.-Iran relations are in a highly tense and prolonged standoff, with significant differences in negotiation stances, control of the Strait of Hormuz, and military deployments.On August 19, the U.S. military conducted a covert operation to clear shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz, ensuring the implementation of subsequent sanctions. Thisoperation went beyond merely escorting oil-laden tankers, also assisting empty tankers transiting the strait from the Arabian Sea into the Persian Gulf, where they loaded oil in the UAE, Bahrain, and Kuwait before departing.
On the Iranian side, leveraging years of experience in coping with sanctions, the country has built a relatively complete local alternative industrial system, achieving self-sufficiency in some livelihood and basic industrial supplies. Iran was already under economic strain, and this extreme economic action is set to further deepen its economic woes.
Following a period of high-level turmoil, Iran’s political landscape is undergoing a shift in power. Hardliners within the armed forces, led by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, are further consolidating their internal influence and directly shaping the negotiation process with the U.S.
Domestically in the U.S., rising gasoline prices over the past six months have increased the cost of living for ordinary citizens. A poll released earlier this month by Reuters and Ipsos shows Trump’s approval rating has slipped from 37% last month to 35%, just one point above the lowest level of his presidency.
Among registered voters surveyed, about 37% believe the Democratic Party is better at economic governance, compared to 36% for the Republican Party. This marks the first time in nearly a decade that Democrats have overtaken Republicans on this metric.
The U.S. Department of Defense has not released any official comprehensive casualty report, but according to public reports, since the large-scale U.S.-Israeli military operation against Iran began in late February, at least 18 U.S. service members have been killed,with expenditures reaching $37.5 billion.
On another front, the U.S. military is also confronting the practical challenge of depleted weapons stockpiles. Several senior U.S. military officials have privately expressed concerns that ammunition reserves have fallen to dangerously low levels, using this as a rationale to advise Trump to hold off on ordering an escalation of military action against Iran.