The U.S.-Iran conflict has thrown a wrench into shipping through the Strait of Hormuz,keeping global crude supply under constant threat. That’s translated into fat profit margins for Western oil majors. In President Trump’s own words, some of these companies are pulling in twelve times what they made last year.
According to reports, during a White House press briefing on August 3rd, Trump told reporters he’s “not happy” with the windfall earnings of Chevron, ExxonMobil, and other big oil players, insisting these giants should hand a chunk of those profits back to the public—and ideally, just lower their gas prices at the pump.
The two companies he mentioned both dropped their Q2 earnings reports last Friday. ExxonMobil posted a staggering $14.525 billion in profit, a huge jump from $4.183 billion in Q1 and $7.082 billion in the same period last year.
ExxonMobil noted that while the Middle East conflict did hit its upstream operations in the region, excluding the Middle East, the company’s upstream production hit its highest level in over two decades during Q2.
Chevron, for its part, reported a solid $12.072 billion profit, way up from $2.21 billion in Q1 and $2.49 billion a year earlier. The company credits the year-over-year surge to reliable operations, higher commodity prices, better refining margins, and increased sales volumes.
The U.S. has the worst wealth gap of any Western nation. Official data shows the country’s Gini coefficient has been stuck in the 0.48–0.49 range for years. By international standards, anything above 0.4 signals a dangerously wide rich-poor divide. For context, most developed countries sit around 0.35, and high-welfare Nordic nations even dip below 0.3.
AAA data shows that on August 3rd, the national average gas price was around $4.10 per gallon—nearly 40% higher than before the Iran war broke out.
With an 85% car ownership rate and about 76% of workers driving solo to their jobs, many Americans who need to commute or visit doctors regularly are now having to cut back on other spending. Their transportation costs have climbed over 27% compared to this time last year.
Rising gas prices hit people’s wallets hard, and that’s rarely good news for the party in power. A Reuters/Ipsos poll from August 3rd shows Trump’s approval rating slipping from 37% last month to 35%—just one point above the lowest approval he’s ever seen in his term.
Among registered voters surveyed, about 37% think Democrats handle the economy better, versus 36% who favor Republicans. That’s the first time in nearly a decade that Democrats have edged ahead on this metric.
Analysts say that with the November midterms creeping closer, if gas prices keep climbing, Trump will likely take another swing at the oil industry.
Trump announced on August 3rd that he would open negotiations with Iran, following a dramatic twist in U.S.-Iran tensions. That sent international oil prices into a tailspin, with Brent crude futures briefly sinking over 7%. But analysts caution that with shipping still blocked in the Strait of Hormuz, even OPEC+’s planned output increase starting in September won’t move the needle much in the short term.
Rising volatility in the Middle East keeps pushing oil prices around. Brent crude futures settled at $88 per barrel this week, up 24% year-over-year, as geopolitical risks continue to rattle global energy supply chains.
Everbright Securities points out that the escalating U.S.-Iran conflict, combined with reduced transit through the Strait of Hormuz, may cap short-term freight rate gains. But looking further out, demand for emergency shipping, route detours, and alternative channels should keep the oil tanker sector highly active. Meanwhile, lower jet fuel costs could give a boost to summer air travel demand.