As of August 2026, India’s total population stands at approximately 1.46 billion. Yet behind the “world’s most populous nation” label lies a web of complex challenges—a fertility rate that’s slipped below replacement levels, stark regional disparities, and a rapidly shifting age structure.
The latest data shows India’s national total fertility rate has dropped to 1.9, dipping below the 2.1 replacement threshold needed to sustain population stability over generations. The Economist notes that this marks a fundamental turning point in India’s population growth pattern.
Less-developed northern and eastern states still show significantly higher fertility rates and intentions compared to their southern counterparts.Some southern states had already fallen to 1.3–1.6 by around 2020.
Adding to the puzzle, India grapples with structural issues like low education levels among working-age adults and weak labor force participation.Research by Alexandra Hermann, chief economist at Oxford Economics, shows that while over half of India’s population is under 30, labor participation sits at a meager 51%.
Much of this stems from female labor force participation languishing below 25%—a rate even lower than Pakistan’s or Bangladesh’s.
Raghuram Rajan, former governor of the Reserve Bank of India, warned in aProject Syndicate essay that by 2050, India’s demographic dividend will further erode due to an aging population. The window is narrow: the economy must grow at 9% annually for the next 25 years, or the country risks falling into a “growing old before getting rich” trap.
The International Labour Organization estimates that over 300 million Indians are either unemployed or underemployed, with vast human potential going untapped. Without sufficient job creation and workforce upskilling, India could stumble into a “population trap” instead of reaping demographic rewards.
Against this backdrop, the Indian government has rolled out a slew of policies to counter low fertility. The central government led by Prime Minister Modi has already reversed decades of “control births, have fewer, raise better” messaging, pivoting instead to reframe childbearing as a societal asset.
The UN recommends governments spend at least 2% of GDP on family support programs to see meaningful results—think South Korea, France, Sweden. India’s spending sits at under 0.5%.
The central government’s budget is stretched across defense, infrastructure, and welfare priorities, leaving scant room for fertility-related initiatives. Support comes mainly through earmarked transfers—funding maternal and child health programs, upgrading grassroots obstetric care, reducing maternal and infant mortality, and regulating the assisted reproduction sector.
Meanwhile, actual policy design, funding, and implementation for birth-related measures fall squarely under state jurisdiction.
This May, Andhra Pradesh—a southern state with near-bottom fertility rates—rolled out new incentives: 25,000 rupees (about 1,768 yuan) for families with two children, 30,000 rupees (2,121 yuan) for three, and 40,000 rupees (2,828 yuan) for four.
Three months in, registrations for third children are up 12% month-over-month, but overall fertility hasn’t rebounded noticeably.The state’s chief minister has even floated requiring candidates in local elections to have children as a qualification.
Andhra Pradesh is a textbook case of southern India’s “prosper first, age first” dynamic—and among the first states to fully embrace pro-natalist policies.Its results will serve as a crucial test case for nationwide fertility governance, with more states expected to follow suit.
Kerala and Tamil Nadu, fellow southern low-fertility states, have rolled out their own localized support packages—12,000 rupees (about 848 yuan) in cash, plus maternity care and medical fee waivers.
Uttar Pradesh, meanwhile, tried offeringaround 5,000 rupees (about 355 yuan)per birth—only to see large chunks of the money diverted for other uses. Central authorities worry that big spending without accountability could dilute the policy’s impact.
In another Asian economic heavyweight, South Korea—long mired in population decline—has recently shown “encouraging signs” thanks to aggressive fiscal intervention.
South Korea’s statistics agency reported on June 24 that April saw 24,521 newborns, an 18% year-on-year jump—marking 22 consecutive months of growth since July 2024. Key drivers include the “echo baby boom” effect, government spending, and other social and economic factors.
Seoul’s support toolbox includes child-rearing subsidies, expanded daycare facilities, bigger fiscal incentives for state-run childcare services, and extra perks for parents with multiple kids.
Concretely: households with infants under 1 get 1 million won (about 4,980 yuan) monthly, while those with toddlers aged 1–2 receive 500,000 won.
Since January 1 of last year, monthly parental leave pay has jumped from 1.5 million to 2.5 million won, payable for up to six months.Beyond cash, leave policies have expanded too—paternity leave doubled from 10 to 20 days, and each parent can now take 1.5 years of parental leave.
Korea’s experience suggests that reversing a fertility freefall takes more than just cash for babies—it demands a comprehensive web of supporting policies.
