Marta Kostyuk defeated Jasmine Paolini 6-3, 7-5 to storm into the Wimbledon 2026 semifinals. The Ukrainian, ranked 18th, will face Linda Noskova.
Kostyuk’s run is the deepest by a Ukrainian woman at Wimbledon since Elina Svitolina in 2023. The 24-year-old has dropped only one set en route to the last four.
Noskova, 20, advanced with a straight-sets win over Maria Sakkari. The Czech’s power game contrasts with Kostyuk’s defensive tenacity.
Oddsmakers list Noskova as a slight -135 favorite. SportsLine’s tennis expert, who has returned +3,200 on top-rated picks in 2026, recommends backing Kostyuk at +115. “Kostyuk’s return game neutralizes big servers,” the analyst noted. “She’s won 62% of second-serve return points this fortnight.”
The semifinal marks Noskova’s first at a major. Kostyuk, a 2023 Australian Open quarterfinalist, has more Grand Slam experience. Their only prior meeting came in 2024 Stuttgart, where Kostyuk won 6-2, 6-3.
Wimbledon’s grass favors aggressive baseliners. Kostyuk’s slice backhand and movement have frustrated opponents. She forced 28 unforced errors from Paolini in the quarterfinal.
Noskova’s serve averages 112 mph. Kostyuk’s return position, 3.5 meters behind the baseline, buys her time to redirect pace.
The winner faces either Iga Swiatek or Elena Rybakina in the final. Swiatek leads the head-to-head with both Kostyuk (3-0) and Noskova (2-0).
| Player | Odds | Set 1 Win % | Aces/Fortnight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Linda Noskova | -135 | 68% | 24 |
| Marta Kostyuk | +115 | 55% | 11 |
BBC Sport’s analysis of Kostyuk’s quarterfinal win highlighted her mental resilience. She saved 5 of 6 break points against Paolini. “I just kept fighting,” Kostyuk told the BBC. “The crowd gave me energy.”
The Ukrainian’s journey includes playing under the shadow of war. She has dedicated her Wimbledon run to “the people back home who can’t watch freely.”
💡 Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
- Q: How did Marta Kostyuk reach the Wimbledon 2026 semifinals?
- A: Kostyuk defeated Jasmine Paolini 6-3, 7-5 in the quarterfinals, dropping only one set in the tournament so far.
- Q: Who is Marta Kostyuk’s semifinal opponent?
- A: She faces Czech player Linda Noskova, who advanced with a straight-sets win over Maria Sakkari.
- Q: What are the odds for Kostyuk vs. Noskova?
- A: Noskova is a slight -135 favorite, while Kostyuk is listed at +115 underdog.
- Q: What makes Kostyuk a strong contender despite being an underdog?
- A: Kostyuk’s return game neutralizes big servers; she has won 62% of second-serve return points this fortnight. Her slice backhand and movement have also frustrated opponents, forcing 28 unforced errors from Paolini.
- Q: Have Kostyuk and Noskova played before?
- A: Yes, their only prior meeting was at the 2024 Stuttgart tournament, where Kostyuk won 6-2, 6-3.
- Q: What is at stake for the Wimbledon 2026 semifinal winner?
- A: The winner faces either Iga Swiatek or Elena Rybakina in the final.
Extended Reading
BBC Sport’s full breakdown of Kostyuk’s path to the semifinals includes granular shot-by-shot data. SportsLine’s model projects a 52.3% probability of Kostyuk covering the +1.5 set handicap.
