As international attention shifts toward the escalating tensions between the US and Iran, along with the crises in the Strait of Hormuz, the heat surrounding the Russia-Ukraine conflict has noticeably cooled. Both sides have recently signaled a willingness to seek a resolution to the ongoing crisis.
According to reports, on June 28, Russian President Vladimir Putin addressed the United Russia party congress, stating that Russia is at a critical juncture in its history. He noted that the country is adjusting certain development goals in response to the actual situation on the ground.
United Russia, the party Putin helped establish, has long been the most influential ruling party in Russian politics, providing stable parliamentary support for his policies in the State Duma.
Putin also made a public statement to the media, suggesting that both Russia and Ukraine cease attacks on each other’s deep rear targets. He warned that if Ukraine continues these strikes, Russia’s retaliatory attacks on Ukrainian deep targets would become significantly more powerful and devastating. He added that while Ukraine might attempt to distract Russian forces by sending sabotage groups into controlled areas, such efforts would be quickly neutralized.
Russia also expressed its hope that US representatives would visit Russia once the situation in Iran stabilizes, wishing to continue discussions on all topics covered during the Anchorage summit between the two leaders last year.
Recently, Ukrainian forces have repeatedly breached Russian air defense networks, launching attacks on critical infrastructure in the Russian hinterland, including oil refineries near Moscow and facilities in Crimea. These strikes have directly impacted Russia’s energy supply and the livelihoods of its civilian population.
Analysts suggest that Putin’s latest remarks are intended to pressure Ukraine and its backers, aiming to refocus the battlefield on the front-line contact zones. This move is designed to prevent the conflict from escalating uncontrollably and draining Russia’s military resources, while also signaling a willingness to manage the intensity of the conflict.
Earlier this month, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky sent an open letter to Putin, proposing that the two leaders hold direct meetings to push for an end to the war. Zelensky suggested that the summit could be held in a neutral third country, such as Switzerland, Turkey, or an Arab nation, and proposed setting a specific date for the meeting. This marks the first time since Russia launched its special military operation that Zelensky has formally invited Putin to talk.
The conflict, which began on February 24, 2022, following NATO’s eastward expansion and tensions in eastern Ukraine, has now lasted over four years—surpassing the duration of World War I. The prospect of peace remains highly uncertain. This instability continues to disrupt the global order, as well as security and prosperity worldwide.
The cumulative casualties on both sides of the Russia-Ukraine conflict have approached 1.8 million, making it one of the most devastating interstate conflicts since World War II. The long-term war of attrition has exacted a heavy toll on both nations.
Hit hard by Western sanctions, Russia’s international standing has plummeted, and its economic outlook faces severe challenges. The country’s GDP growth for 2025 is projected at a mere 1%. Due to significant cuts in EU imports and the need to accept lower prices in Asian markets, Russia’s energy export revenues have collapsed. Meanwhile, soaring defense budgets have severely crowded out investment in public welfare and industry.
The impact on Ukraine has been even more profound, affecting its territory, economic structure, social welfare, and political landscape. Russia currently controls about 20% of Ukrainian territory. The country’s industrial system, energy sector, and infrastructure are in ruins.
Ukraine’s population has dropped from 43 million before the war to 34 million, with over 16,000 civilians killed. 12 million people now require humanitarian aid, contributing to one of the largest refugee crises since WWII. Direct economic losses during the war amount to $195 billion. The World Bank estimates that reconstruction costs over the next decade could reach $588 billion.
The international community has repeatedly called for an immediate, comprehensive, and unconditional ceasefire. UN Secretary-General António Guterres has urged all parties to adhere to the UN Charter, international law, and relevant UN resolutions, respecting Ukraine’s independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity.
Efforts to mediate peace for Ukraine have faced numerous twists and turns. In January this year, the first trilateral talks between the US, Russia, and Ukraine yielded no concrete results, with the core issue of territorial boundaries remaining unresolved. According to US President Donald Trump, the only remaining issue between the two sides is the status of the Donbas region.
At a broadened meeting of the Russian Ministry of Defense on December 17 last year, Putin emphasized his bottom line: Russia will not compromise on the issue of Ukrainian territory. He reiterated that Russia’s claims extend beyond Crimea, which is already part of Russia, to include the four eastern Ukrainian oblasts: Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson.
The first two oblasts are located in the Donbas region, which was once part of the Russian Empire but was assigned to independent, internationally recognized Ukraine after the dissolution of the Soviet Union.
Putin claims that these lands historically belong to Russia and argues that the root cause of the conflict lies in NATO’s expansion. He asserts that Ukraine’s internal destabilization is supported by the West, and that Russia’s “special military operation” aims to eliminate the source of conflict and ensure its own security. Most European countries, however, condemn this as an act of aggression.
Zelensky responded firmly, stating that Ukraine will not legally or factually recognize Donetsk and Luhansk as part of Russia. He warned that Ukraine needs genuine security guarantees to avoid becoming a victim of “crazy historical narratives,” cautioning that other European nations could also be targeted by Russia’s claims of “inherent land.”
Some scholars analyze that, given external factors such as the upcoming US midterm elections in November, a temporary ceasefire is more likely than a comprehensive peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine this year. The conflict has also exposed cracks and strategic dilemmas within NATO. Without a new security guarantee mechanism, similar conflicts may well erupt in other regions.
