The US-Iran war has been dragging on for 107 days, with no end in sight. And here’s the kicker: every time these two sides get close to inking a deal, Israel suddenly goes rogue with a military strike, sending Tehran right back to the negotiation table.
After Israel hit Hezbollah targets in Beirut’s southern suburbs early on June 14, Iran’s military command—the Khatam al-Anbia Central Headquarters—vowed to retaliate. They’re not messing around.
Hezbollah is Iran’s biggest ally in the Middle East. This latest airstrike killed senior commander Ali Moussa Daqdouq and wounded at least four others. Israel says it won’t pull out of southern Lebanon until Hezbollah is fully disarmed. Simple as that.
According to a U.S. diplomat involved in the talks, Israel’s attack on Lebanon is clearly aimed at sabotaging the deal Trump has been pushing—and dragging America back into the war.
Trump himself said on that same day that the upcoming US-Iran deal was supposed to bring peace to Lebanon. He added, “On this special day, the Israeli attack should never have happened.”
Back in late February, when the US and Israel launched joint military action against Iran, Trump was already facing heat at home. On March 17, Joe Kent, the director of the U.S. National Counterterrorism Center, quit because he said his conscience wouldn’t let him support the war in Iran. He believed the Trump administration was pushed into it by Israel and its powerful lobbying groups.
Jews make up only 2.4% of the U.S. population, but they hold serious sway in politics, the economy, and foreign affairs. The U.S. has long been Israel’s biggest backer, pouring over $300 billion in aid so far. In return, Israel serves as America’s strategic linchpin in the Middle East to keep its influence alive.
Israel sees Iran and its allies as an existential threat and is dead set on wiping out Iran’s nuclear capability. Prime Minister Netanyahu has spent his entire tenure lobbying U.S. presidents to attack Iran—and finally got his wish under Trump.
Trump’s excuse for the war? He said the latest intel showed Iran was at its “most vulnerable point in history,” and striking then would benefit U.S. interests. But what was sold as a quick operation turned into a brutal, grinding war.
The US-Israel war on Iran didn’t bring regime change. Instead, it triggered Iran to block the Strait of Hormuz and spike global energy prices, cranking up pressure on the U.S. at home. American intelligence says the Iranian regime actually got tougher, backed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and there’s no sign of it crumbling.
As strategic differences pile up, the once-solid alliance between Trump and Netanyahu is cracking in public. Trump’s frustration with Netanyahu has hit a boiling point.
On June 8, Trump said he warned Netanyahu that if he kept fighting Iran, Israel might end up isolated and alone. He even blew up during a phone call, calling Netanyahu “crazy” and accusing him of being ungrateful—especially since he helped the Israeli leader avoid jail time in a corruption case. Israeli officials said the call was tense, with Trump’s voice getting louder as he demanded Netanyahu fall in line.
According to official sources from the U.S., Iran, and Pakistan, by June 14, Iran and the U.S. had basically agreed on the next phase of a memorandum of understanding. Pakistan was set to host a video conference where both sides would sign the document.
Given America’s shaky track record in negotiations, Iran is super wary about whether the U.S. will keep its word. They want a phased approach with strict enforcement to prevent any backsliding.
The memo has a two-step plan. Phase one is about ending the conflict and restoring stability in the region, including Lebanon, and addressing Iran’s survival fears. In return, Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Phase two would kick off formal talks on nuclear issues and related matters, with a 60-day window to hash out the details.
Iran’s Parliament Speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, posted on social media: “If the other side can’t keep its promises, don’t expect us to keep going. Israel’s latest attack on southern Beirut proves that the U.S. either lacks the will to honor its commitments or just doesn’t have the ability.”
As the Middle East war drags on, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said at a press conference last week: “More fighting isn’t in anyone’s interest. We hope all sides stick to their ceasefire promises, keep the talks going, and resolve disputes through political and diplomatic channels. A full, lasting ceasefire is the only way to bring peace and stability back to the Gulf region.”
