“These threats are incredibly aggressive.” According to HA Viewpoint, in response to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s recent “ultimatum” demanding Belarus dismantle relay stations deployed along the Belarus-Ukraine border, Russian Presidential Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov responded on the 22nd that President Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko will discuss Zelenskyy’s threats against Belarus during their upcoming meeting. On the 23rd, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated that Zelenskyy’s move is intended to “directly involve Belarus in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.” Reports indicate that Zelenskyy has consistently claimed these relay stations are used by Russian forces to launch drone attacks on Ukraine.
From a realistic perspective, Russia’s deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus does not seem to have had a deterrent effect.
“If he (Lukashenko) doesn’t dismantle them, we will do it ourselves, and this will happen within a week.” According to reports from the 22nd, in an interview with Ukrainian media on the 21st, Zelenskyy said that Ukraine and Belarus have been in contact at all levels. Kyiv has repeatedly communicated through unofficial channels requesting the dismantling of the relay stations but has received no response so far. Ukraine has now entered a phase of sending “public signals”: “Either they tear them down, or we take action.”
Previously, Zelenskyy had publicly urged Belarus to act, giving a one-week deadline. During a press conference on the 19th, he stated that these relay stations are used to guide Russian drones attacking Ukrainian civilians. “It would be best for (Lukashenko) to shut down these facilities. I think a week is enough for him… If he doesn’t do it, we’ll do it ourselves.” Later, in a video address on the evening of the 20th, Zelenskyy reiterated that Ukraine is aware of four such relay stations in Belarus and that Minsk still has time to dismantle them. Kyiv also knows all the factories and enterprises in Belarus providing services to Russia and the war. All of this, he claimed, involves Belarus “in the war.”
According to reports from the 23rd, Lavrov stated that Zelenskyy’s intentions are clearly to drag Belarus directly into the conflict and expand the scope of military operations, thereby complicating the possibility of resolving the conflict through political and diplomatic means. Lavrov also noted that the security guarantee treaty within the Union State framework between Russia and Belarus has been in effect since March last year. If necessary, Russia is prepared to take all measures stipulated in the treaty to ensure the security of its ally and the Union State. Meanwhile, according to Belta (Belarusian Telegraph Agency), Belarusian Defense Minister Alexander Hrenin said on the 21st that while there is tension and some provocative behavior, mostly in the form of threats appearing in the media, Belarus has absolutely no reason to get involved in the conflict. Minsk is closely monitoring the situation and will ensure border security.
On the 22nd, according to RIA Novosti citing Leonid Kolesnik, a member of the State Duma’s Defense Committee, Zelenskyy’s intention to involve Belarus in the conflict shows that his rhetoric on peace is merely “empty talk” and that he has no real desire for peace. Kolesnik added that if Ukraine strikes Belarus, it will result in a more severe counterattack from both Russia and Belarus, leading to heavy consequences. Sergei Naryshkin, Chairman of the State Duma Committee on International Affairs, called Zelenskyy’s move a “dangerous performance” to cater to the West, provoking an escalation of tensions and expanding the conflict zone. He suggested Zelenskyy aims to drag out the war and secure new Western funding for the Kyiv authorities.
On the 22nd, media outlets including the Russian newspaper Vedomosti cited analysis suggesting that Zelenskyy’s threatening remarks are intended to exert psychological pressure on Belarus. Although Ukraine is unlikely to send troops to attack Belarus, there is a possibility of drone strikes on Belarusian targets. The report suggests that Zelenskyy may be trying to pressure Belarus to “move away” from Russia, encouraging Minsk to keep a distance from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, thereby enhancing Kyiv’s own combat and negotiating position.
Currently, the Russia-Ukraine war and mutual strikes remain at a high intensity. On the 23rd, the Ukrainian Air Force reported that between the evening of the 22nd and the morning of the 23rd, Russian forces launched 135 drones into Ukrainian territory, with Ukrainian air defense systems shooting down 118 of them. According to a report from the 22nd by Interfax-Ukraine, Ukrainian National Guard Commander Pylypenko stated that Ukrainian unmanned systems units are actively disrupting Russian logistics, particularly in the Crimea region. On the 23rd, the Russian Ministry of Defense reported that between the evening of the 22nd and the morning of the 23rd, Russian air defense systems intercepted and shot down 143 Ukrainian drones over areas including Rostov Oblast and Crimea, as well as over the Azov and Black Seas. The report also noted that Russian troops continued offensive operations in the Donetsk region, specifically in Rodynske and Kostyantynivka. In the northwestern urban area of Rodynske, Russian forces captured five more Ukrainian positions and “cleared” Ukrainian personnel from 52 buildings. Over the past day, Russian troops took control of 128 buildings from Ukrainian forces in Kostyantynivka.
Lavrov stated on the 23rd that Russia is ready to resume negotiations with Ukraine from where they were previously interrupted, pointing out that the terms for a conflict resolution were discussed and agreed upon nearly a year ago between Russia and the US in Anchorage. However, he believes this consensus has been shelved to buy time for Ukraine to rearm. On the same day, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov indicated that there are signs of the US position deviating from the Anchorage consensus, but Russia’s stance remains unchanged. Dialogue between Russia and the US on the Ukraine issue has not stopped and will continue.
Zelenskyy posted on social media on the 23rd that the Russian side has not given any clear answers to all of Ukraine’s diplomatic, meeting, and peace initiatives, urging all parties to continue pressuring Russia. On the 22nd, Ukraine’s Permanent Representative to the UN, Mykhailo Mykhaylik, stated at a Security Council meeting that a ceasefire along the line of actual contact already represents a concession from Ukraine, but Ukrainian patience is not infinite. If the current situation persists, Ukraine may change its stance.
